With the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, financial advisors are getting more questions from clients about whether it makes sense to consider these types of investments for their portfolios.

One topic that will undoubtedly get more attention in the press this year (2024) is the Bitcoin halving event, likely to occur in spring or early summer. Regardless of their view on this asset type, advisors should prepare themselves for client questions regarding this event.

Essentially, the Bitcoin protocol has pre-programmed events that periodically reduce by half the amount paid to the entities that verify Bitcoin transactions. Payments to these entities, called miners, are the only way new Bitcoins enter circulation. This means the rate at which new Bitcoins enter circulation is reduced. The point when the reward to miners is reduced by half is called a halving event.

The impact of a halving event on Bitcoin’s price is complex and debatable. Some believe that the reduced rate of new supply will cause the price of Bitcoin to rise. Others might make the case that factors beyond supply will have a more significant impact on the price in the future. Regardless, the performance of Bitcoin around the time of previous halving events is no guarantee of future price movements.

Finsum: Bitcoin is closing in on a halving event, and advisors should know the basics to answer client questions.

The financial advice industry is going to go through major changes over the next decade due to demographics and an evolving culture. The average financial advisor is 65 years old and thinking about retirement and succession planning rather than growing their practice. For younger advisors, it presents a unique opportunity to advance their careers.

David Wood, the founder and chief visionary officer of Gateway Financial Partners, remarked that “There’s an overwhelming need for advisors to pick up some of these practices from retiring advisors.” Gateway Financial is a hybrid RIA with more than 170 advisors collectively managing $6.5 billion. Lately, the firm has been focusing on helping its independent advisors grow their practices through acquisitions. 

Wood believes that this is “the best time ever to be in the financial services space”. He believes that the demand for financial advice has never been higher, while a third of advisors will be retiring over the next decade, creating a vacuum for younger advisors. 

He also believes the culture is changing which will open up more opportunities for female advisors to thrive. Specifically, the industry is evolving from a focus on selling products to forming relationships and financial planning. Currently, women account for 30% of advisors, he expects that this number will increase over the next decade due these changes and the retirement wave of older, predominantly male advisors. 

Finsum: There are two major changes in the financial advice industry. One is that a third of advisors will retire over the next decade. The second is that the industry is evolving from selling products to building relationships and financial planning. Here’s why this is creating an opportunity for younger and female advisors.

Fidelity Investments launched a new active fixed income ETF this week, the Fidelity Low Duration Bond Factor ETF (FLDB). The ETF will invest 80% of its assets in short duration, investment-grade debt, consisting of floating rate notes and Treasuries, with a fee of 20 basis points. It seeks to balance credit risk and interest rate risk while outperforming benchmarks. 

Greg Friedman, Fidelity’s head of ETF management and strategy, noted, “It’s an asset class within fixed income that did not have any coverage until this morning. It fits a client's need to have that short duration exposure to a broad-based market of fixed income products.” 

Fixed income ETFs are experiencing a boom in terms of new issues and inflows. According to Tony Kelly, the co-founder of BondBloxx, assets in fixed income ETFs will reach 40% by the end of the decade from 20% currently. Active ETFs are finding traction as they allow for specific thematic exposure without sacrificing liquidity. Last year, assets under management for active ETFs increased by 37%. 

Fidelity is also jumping on the trend. In addition to launching FLDB, it debuted the Fidelity Fundamental Large Cap Value ETF (FFLV).  Its new line of ‘Fundamental suite ETFs’ will be active as it will utilize a quantitative overlay to their typical process. In total, Fidelity has 66 ETFs with $55 billion in assets under management. 

Finsum: Fidelity is betting big on active ETFs as it launched 2 new ones this week. Investors have been receptive to these products as it gives them narrow exposure in a liquid vehicle. 

Last year, real estate transactions declined by 50%, while cap rates increased by 80 basis points. Many sellers were unwilling to let go of properties at lower prices, while buyers contended with a higher cost of capital and macroeconomic uncertainties. Another headwind was that many banks pulled back from lending due to balance sheet concerns, following the regional banking crisis.

This year, KKR is forecasting that real estate transactions will pick up, and there will be many opportunities for investors. Additionally, private real estate investors are well-positioned to step into the vacuum and provide financing for high-quality real estate at attractive terms. 

KKR notes some catalysts that should result in transaction volume increasing. The firm believes that real estate values are near a bottom especially as the Fed is at the end of its hiking cycle and looking to cut in the coming months. 

It also notes that REITs are a leading indicator for private real estate and have already embarked on a robust rally. Further, many real estate private equity funds have ample cash and have been on the sidelines for the last year and a half. Finally, many owners and operators will be forced to sell given that many loans are due to be refinanced in the coming years. In total, $1.6 trillion of real estate debt will be maturing in the next 3 years. 

Finsum: Over the last 18 months, activity in real estate has plummeted. KKR believes that we are close to a bottom. It sees attractive opportunities for private real estate investors especially given that many loans will need to be refinanced in the coming years in addition to an improvement in macroeconomic conditions.

The rise in bond yields presents an opportunity for fixed income investors to find value according to Penter Bentley, the co-manager of the BNY Mellon Global Credit Fund. He notes that bond yields are close to their highest levels since the financial crisis and that conditions have been improving for investment-grade debt. 

Due to these developments, he anticipates healthy returns for global and regional investment-grade credit. A key factor is borrowers have strong balance sheets with lower leverage than before the pandemic. In fact, Bentley believes that certain segments within fixed income could perform better than equities. He identifies ‘fallen angels’, short-duration high yield bonds, and emerging market corporate debt as having the most potential for outperformance this year. 

Some uncertainties that could cloud this outlook including the election in November, the Fed’s ability to cut rates, and a tense geopolitical situation with Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East.  Thus, investors should expect volatility to persist all year which means more opportunities for active managers to outperform. 

Another place that fixed income investors can find value is with global credit. Historically, global credit has delivered better returns when markets are emerging from a downturn. In terms of global credit, Bentley sees opportunities in European credit markets and emerging market debt.   

Finsum: Peter Bentley, the co-manager of the BNY Global Credit Fund, believes that investors can find value in fixed income. He sees the potential for strong returns in global credit, short-duration high yield debt, and ‘fallen angels’. 

Following the collapse of First Republic, many believed that there would be a negative impact on financial advisor recruiting. However, this concern was unfounded as more than 9,600 experienced advisors switched firms last year, which was a 7.5% increase from 2022 according to a report from Diamond Consultants. 

Jason Diamond, executive VP of Diamond Consultants, authored the report. He considers an experienced advisor to be one with a minimum of 3 years of experience. He believes that the healthy recruiting figures reflect that advisors are ‘taking a long-term view of the business in terms of what move will best position them for the next five years, not just today.” 

The two biggest moves were a team from UBS, managing $5.5 billion in assets, moving to RBC, and a private banking group at Bank of America, advising on $4.5 billion in client assets, joining Fidelis Capital, an independent wealth management practice. 

Most moves were within the same channel, such as wirehouse to wirehouse, even though many headlines focus on large teams going independent. For 2024, expectations are for another strong year of recruiting, although weakness in financial markets could lead to less activity. Many wealth management firms now offer multiple affiliation channels for incoming advisors. Additionally, private equity has also been getting more involved which has also pushed valuations higher. 

Finsum: Many thought that financial advisor recruiting would drop off in 2023 following the collapse of First Republic. However, this was incorrect as recruiting was up 7.5% compared to 2022. Expectations are that recruiting in 2024 should be strong as well.  

US Treasuries continue to move lower as hopes for a pivot in Fed policy are eroding. From the start of the year, the yield on the 10-year has climbed from 3.9% to above 4.3% to reach their highest levels since November. In total, it has retraced nearly half of the rally that began in October of last year. 

Over this period, the number of rate cuts expected in 2024 has declined from 6 to 3 as has the timing. Primarily, this is due to the economy remaining strong as evidenced by the labor market and inflation that has proven to be more entrenched than expected. All in all, the narrative has certainly changed as some now believe the Fed may actually hike rates further especially as there are indications that the steady decline in inflation has ended. 

Minutes from the last FOMC meeting also showed that committee members are concerned about the risk of inflation re-igniting if it begins to cut too soon. Overall, it remains ‘data-dependent’. However, all the recent data has undermined the case for immediate or aggressive cuts. According to Rich Familetti, CIO of US fixed income at SLC Management, the current Fed stance "is going to make it very hard for rates to fall much further from here… The pain trade is at higher rates and we will likely experience that."

Finsum: Treasuries continued their losing streak as higher interest rates have weighed on the entire fixed income complex. The market is now expecting 3 cuts in 2024 down from 6 at the start of the year.

2023 was a unique year as nearly every asset rallied due to positive news on inflation, an economy that remained resilient, and expectations that the Fed is ready to pivot on monetary policy. Looking ahead, 2024 is certainly going to be more challenging for equities and fixed income.

JPMorgan believes that investors should have exposure to private market as they offer steady returns and can increase diversification. The bank notes that private equity has outperformed public markets over multi-year periods regardless of economic conditions. The asset class has recently faced headwinds due to interest rates increasing the cost of capital. It recommends focusing on private equity funds that less leveraged and focused on higher-quality companies with durable growth characteristics.

While the monetary environment poses some challenges, it also creates opportunities for investors to lock in attractive yields in private credit. Commensurately, many banks have pulled back from lending, following the regional banking crisis, while public market debt issuance has also been constrained. Private credit has stepped into the vacuum to provide capital for these borrowers while also structuring loans to provide more protection in the event of a default. The bank notes attractive opportunities in commercial real estate, floating rate debt, and leveraged loans.

Finsum: JPMorgan anticipates more volatility and a more challenging environment in 2024 than last year. It sees upside in alternative investments to boost returns and diversification.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan is looking to increase the profitability of the bank’s wealth management unit. He wants to achieve this by increasing scale, hiring more advisors, promoting more cross-selling of products, and investing in technology. 

In Q4, Bank of America had a net gain of 175 brokers with most of the growth coming from graduates of its training program. It ended the year with 18,916 advisors across all units which was a 2% decline from the end of 2023. The bank has also sought to stem the tide of defections over the past few years by upping compensation to match its competitors.

Moynihan wants to expand headcount and increase the bank’s presence in underserved markets. A key aspect of this is its revamped broker training which was integrated with Merril in 2021 and has increased retention rates of new advisors. 

Another element of the growth plan is to increase use of Bank of America financial products across its ecosystem. This means getting wealth management clients to use Bank of America financial products such as home loans or bank accounts, or private banking customers should be using Merrill for wealth management rather than an outside firm. He sees this as an opportunity to increase sales with minimal expense compared to other channels. 

Finsum: Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan was positive on the wealth management unit’s performance. He sees future growth coming from adding advisors, investing in technology, and increasing cross-selling of products. 

A major trend in wealth management is personalization. Due to new technology, financial advisors are now able to offer customized products and solutions without sacrificing scalability. It can help clients reach their financial goals while also creating a stronger relationship between advisors and clients.  

A survey conducted of high net worth investors by PwC showed that 66% are interested in more personalization, while 46% are looking to change or add new advisors within the next couple of years. For advisors, offering personalized solutions will be increasingly important in terms of recruiting and retaining clients.   

Personalization is also impacting model portfolios. Until recently, most model portfolios were built around the traditional portfolio, combining stocks and bonds, which limited customization. Now, there are more options to customize model portfolios including by factors, themes, and values. 

According to research from MSCI, wealth managers can allocate to these strategies without worry that it would have an adverse impact on a portfolio in terms of returns or diversification. Further, these model portfolios are customized but still retain their core benefits. For advisors, this means spending less time on investment management and more time on client service, financial planning, and growing the business.

Finsum: Personalization is a major trend in wealth management. Now, model portfolios can be customized which is bringing a variety of benefits for advisors and clients without an adverse impact on returns or diversification.