(New York)

It finally happened. After dangling on the edge of an inversion for months, the US yield curve has just officially crossed into one. The gap between 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields is now negative. 10-year yields have been falling, recently hitting a low of 2.439%. Yield curve inversions are seen as the most reliable indicator of forthcoming recessions. Yields have been falling as a reaction to a highly dovish Fed and weakening economic data.

FINSUM: This is a reason to worry about he economy, but remember that there is often a long lag between an inversion and a peak in the stock market.

(New York)

One of the interesting aspects of the market this year is that the sectors that are doing best are not the ones an investor would naturally expect. For instance, the sector which is blowing away the S&P 500 is utilities. The stocks have been doing so well, they are showing up in momentum oriented funds, which is a rarity. The sector is known for its solidity and stable returns, but right now utilities are hot. Over the last twelve months, utilities have returned 21.2% versus the S&P 500’s 7.3%.

FINSUM: You don’t usually think of utilities getting hot, but because rates are falling at the same time as real estate weakening, utilities are taking a lot of capital that is usually split with REITs.

(Frankfurt)

In another sign of the deteriorating global economy, bond yields in Europe are once again moving negative. German Bund yields fell in trading recently and are now below zero. The move reflects the recently weak data coming out of Europe as fears grow about a recession there. Europe had seen negative bond yields for a long period until the brief bout of economic strength over the last couple of years.

FINSUM: Can the US be the odd man out in deflecting the global downturn? We have done it before, but this time feels different.

(Washington)

The bond market seems to have blind faith in the Fed right now. Longer-term bond yields have fallen dramatically, a sign that fixed income investors are sure the Fed is not planning any moves. Not only are bonds up considerably lately, but implied volatility is very low. That means investors are discounting both the chance for an inflation increase and an economic downturn. In other words, they think the economy and Fed is going to stay right where it is.

FINSUM: Can you blame them? The economy lingered in what we think of as an investor’s “goldilocks” phase for several years after the Crisis—inflation not too low, not too high, Fed on hold, asset prices rising. It does not seem unlikely we go back into that mode.

(Washington)

A lot of brokers have been feeling good about the SEC’s best interest rule. While that may be misguided, the perception is that the rule is significantly less stringent than the DOL rule, and thus offers a better operating paradigm. However, developments with the rule are not looking favorable to those hoping for a loose regulatory structure. In House hearings recently, four out of five witnesses called to testify on the rule said that having no new rule would be better than having the BI proposal implemented. One top compliance firm thinks the SEC is moving towards a much more strict DOL-type rule, saying “We predict that the SEC is going to re-propose [Regulation Best Interest] to make it closer to a fiduciary standard because the states have come out [with their own initiatives]”.

FINSUM: We have said for some time that we do not believe the SEC rule will be implemented in anything near its current form. That is reality is looking ever more likely.