FINSUM

FINSUM

Email: عنوان البريد الإلكتروني هذا محمي من روبوتات السبام. يجب عليك تفعيل الجافاسكربت لرؤيته.
الإثنين, 01 نيسان/أبريل 2019 13:04

Recession Watch: Retail Sales Turn Negative

(New York)

In another sign of a weakening economic landscape, new retail sales data was released for February, and it was not pretty. The data didn’t just slow, it actually reversed, with retail sales falling 0.2% month over month in February. The data was a big shock as economists were expecting a gain, especially after a revised 0.7% increase in January. The numbers suggest the economy may be in line for a contraction in Q1, as December also saw a big 1.6% decline in retail sales.


FINSUM: There are a lot of economic indicators looking negative right now. We are still optimistic, but the signs are getting harder to ignore.

الإثنين, 01 نيسان/أبريل 2019 13:01

A Great ETF for Merger Buzz

(New York)

We wanted to write an article about a new fund we discovered in our regular course of business, but that got us excited. One of our gripes with ETFs is that there always seems to be a dearth of ways to express short-term tactical opportunities, or own a fund that does so. That is why we were excited to find a fund in New York Life’s IndexIQ ETF lineup. The fund, the IQ Merger Arbitrage ETF (MNA), seeks to gain capital appreciation by buying companies that have had public takeover announcements. The fund also includes a short on global equities as a partial hedge. Merger arbitrage is a common hedge fund strategy.


FINSUM: This is one of those area where we often wish we had exposure, but don’t have the time to actually enact a strategy, so this IndexIQ fund is very useful. The fund has a 75 basis point expense ratio.

الإثنين, 01 نيسان/أبريل 2019 12:59

Value Stocks Ready for a Resurgence

(New York)

It has been a long time since value stocks had a chance to shine. A LONG time. Growth stocks have handily outperformed their growth cousins, so much so that even some diehard value investors have talked about giving up on the practice. Value stocks took a pounding in March following the Fed’s dovish turn and spreads versus the market’s most expensive stocks are at their widest in 70 years. This means it may be a good time to buy, says Bernstein’s equity research team. If you look away from financial value stocks, the sector did not actually get wounded much last month. The reason why it may be time to buy is two-part: the first is that value stocks tend to outperform when the economy is slowing, but not in outright recession. The second is that high value stock spreads are seen all across the economy, and not just in challenged sectors, which means they are less likely indicative of real challenges and are more likely just a market symptom.


FINSUM: We understand this analysis, but have to disagree. We just don’t think the old precedents for value stocks hold much water at the point. Our view is that as growth slows, investors will buy the stocks with the most growth, not the cheapest ones.

الجمعة, 29 آذار/مارس 2019 11:36

The SEC is Trying to Get Rid of State Fiduciary Rules

(Washington)

The fiduciary rule saga has been long and confusing. Firs the DOL Rule fell flat, then the SEC proposed its own rule, only to face harsh criticism from everyone but the brokerage industry. Now there is a new piece of news that we find encouraging: the SEC is apparently working directly with states as part of an effort to craft a new framework that will eliminate any conflicts with state-level fiduciary rules. The SEC is consulting with states like Maryland, Connecticut, Nevada, and New Jersey to make sure there aren’t grey areas or loopholes that create nightmares for advisors and their clients.


FINSUM: There are two positive developments here. On the one hand, it is great that the SEC is trying to iron out any conflicts with state-level rules, but on the other, it is even better that this consultation might actually lead to the dissolution of those state rules.

الجمعة, 29 آذار/مارس 2019 11:35

US Growth is Worse Than It Looks

(New York)

Headline fourth quarter growth got downgraded this week to just 2.2% (from 2.6%). That may not seem like a devastating fall, but if you take a closer look at the figures, they are worse than at first glance. In particular, it becomes clear that growth was actually weakening all throughout 2018 (versus 2017). While the fourth quarter especially showed weakness, it was really only two one-time quirks that kept growth as high as it was for the year: increased military spending and higher spending by non-profits. Neither of those factors are very tied to the underlying economy and consumers.


FINSUM: This is pretty eye-opening and does sap our confidence a bit. Consumer spending also barely rose in January, which is another negative sign.

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