(New York)

Yes, the market had an unbelievable day yesterday. It was so good in fact, that it reminds one of all the things bad about the current situation—markets don’t rise 11% unless there is a huge crisis going on. At the time of writing, markets are pretty flat today, but tomorrow could be a doozy. US weekly jobless clams get released tomorrow morning and will be one of the first tangible signs of how the economy is trending under the coronavirus lockdown.

FINSUM: Many analysts are saying we might hit 30% unemployment, depending on how long this general virus lockdown lasts. Tomorrow could be the first sign of things to come and markets may react sharply.

(New York)

Many people who are thinking about annuities don’t realize that many of them are sellable products—they don’t necessarily have to be held forever (even if that is often the best strategy). So which annuities are sellable and which aren’t? In general, SPIAs (single premium immediate annuities), DIAs (deferred income annuities), and QLACs (qualified longevity annuity contracts) are not sellable; VAs (variable annuities), FIAs (fixed index annuities), and MYGA (multi-year guarantee annuities) are usually sellable. Each of those latter products have surrender charge time periods in them, so it may cost something, but it does mean money is not locked in them forever.

FINSUM: Since selling would usually not be the best idea, this is more of a peace of mind factor than anything else, in our opinion.

(New York)

Many RIAs across the country are worried right now. With fee levels often tied to AUM, revenue seems likely to take a ~30% hit this year. That is enough to break many RIAs, especially those who were previously running only 10% profit margins. So how can RIAs cope? Firstly, those who have been very tight on budgets are in better shape. Those who were operating at 30% profit margins should be okay. A few of the key aspects to consider right now are: reaching out to vendors to “share the pain”, changing compensation structures towards lower fixed pay and more incentive-based pay, and switching to a quarterly budget, which will better align expenses and income.

FINSUM: We might go through a long period of lean times, so RIAs need to act fast to get their fixed costs under control.

(New York)

Any investor cannot help but have noticed very unusual movements in markets over the last couple of weeks. In particular, Treasury bonds have been behaving very oddly. After yields predictably plunged alongside stocks a couple of weeks ago, there have been abrupt movements higher, with 10-year yields rising around 90 basis points (from 0.4% to 1.3%) in just a few days. Even now, when yields would presumably be nearing zero, they have been see-sawing and are still near 1%. The reason why appears to be panic-selling in an effort to get cash in any way possibly. In particular, large investors need to meet redemptions in other areas of credit, which are much less liquid, and since getting cash for their holdings there is impossible right now, they are selling Treasury holdings to get the cash to meet redemptions.

FINSUM: This is not unlike selling your valuables to meet mortgage payments. It makes sense, but it is a worrying sign and a symptom of how dire the market has gotten.

(New York)

A lot of advisors and investors are looking at fixed annuities right now, especially fixed index annuities. Such products offer principal protection and lifetime income, both of which are in short supply given current market conditions. It is important to remember though, that FIAs were only built to beat CD returns by a small margin, they are not supposed to have huge upside. With that said, there are ways to maximize returns, such as using income riders. These are extra features which provide higher lifetime income payments are a future date of your choice. They need to be added when you buy the annuity, not later, and do have annual fees.

FINSUM: Income riders are most popular with fixed index annuities, but do show up in some variable annuities and SPIAs.

(Washington)

President Trump is changing his view on coronavirus. When the virus first started sweeping the world, he maintained a cavalier attitude. He then pivoted to be very focused and concerned about protecting against the virus. Now he is moving back in the other direction, saying that at the end of the current 15-day lockdown, he is considering opening the economy back up, joining a chorus of business leaders who say that the “cure cannot be worse than the virus itself”.

FINSUM: This is a difficult and risky decision—lives or livelihoods? However, Trump proceeds, it seems unlikely New York, California, and Washington, will take his lead.

(Washington)

The forecasts for growth have been reverberating through markets. When this whole crisis started, Goldman Sachs initially said there would be a 5% drop in GDP in the second quarter. Oh how delightful that sounds now. Things have escalated considerably since then. Here is a smattering of various Q2 GDP forecasts: Goldman Sachs at 24% decline, Morgan Stanley at 30%, and the St. Louis Fed at a whopping 50% decline.

FINSUM: We think it is safe to assume that the GDP decline in Q2 is going to massive. So much so that the actual figure matters much less than the pace at which the economy bounces back thereafter. Is it going to be a V-shaped recovery, or a U, or the dreaded “L-shaped” recovery?

(New York)

Wall Street made a grim prognostication today. The street reminded investors that so far the losses in equities have been modest compared to prior routs. The S&P 500 is down (before today) 32% since its peak. That compares to 57% during the Financial Crisis, and 49% in the Dotcom bubble. Goldman Sachs says the S&P 500 will see a 41% fall from peak to trough, while Bank of America thinks it will be 47%.

FINSUM: It is easy to imagine a couple more weeks of double digit losses before peak case-load hits and markets start to calm down. In our opinion, the rise and eventual decline in US cases will be the switch that turns markets on.

(Washington)

The Fed announced an unprecedented monetary stimulus package this morning. The central bank declared that its new bond buying program was unlimited, and that it would immediately start buying hundreds of billions of different types of bonds in an effort to unclog credit markets. They also extended lending facilities to new markets such as municipal bonds.

FINSUM: The Fed has been far from shy to in reacting to this crisis, but nothing it is doing seems to be helping markets much. Post-announcement, the Dow is already down over 3%.

(Berlin)

Germany has been very successful over the last three decades with a fiscal stimulus strategy that helps to offset mass unemployment during economic downturns. The tactic is called “kurzarbeit”, or short work, and a policy by which instead of getting laid off, workers go on shortened hours and the government pays a portion of their salary to offset costs for the company who employs them. A typical example would be a factory that needs to cut a group of workers’ hours by 80% as demand shrinks. In this case, the employer would pay 20% of the previous wage, with the government covering something like 60%. This leaves the worker with 80% of the previous wage, and the prospect of still having a job so that when the economy improves, they just go back to full-time.

FINSUM: Our team has family in Austria and Germany that are currently on a kurzarbeit program and have done so in the past (during the European debt crisis nine years ago). It works very well and is something that the US should seriously look at right now. That said, Germany has some advantages that make it more feasible—it has lower property rents, and it is a nation of savers, meaning there is more margin for error in household budgets.