(New York)

The markets are not reflecting it, but sometimes it feels as though the writing is on the wall. The economy is bound to get worse before it gets better. We have been locked down long enough now that consumer habits are shifting and the spending patterns that prolong recessions are taking hold. Total US credit card debt has fallen 5% in five weeks—the fastest fall since the Great Recession. Auto loans are the same. On the whole, the more data comes out, the worse the picture gets.

FINSUM: Job losses have not yet peaked, so we are not even close to being on the road to recovery. We suspect it is going to take a long time to get back to where we were in February. We expect this will be a very wide U-shaped recovery.