(Washington)

A lot of financial advisors are small business owners, and thousands of them are likely looking for the government’s Payment Protection Program assistance right now. As anyone involved in applying for the program knows, things have been very frustrating and uncertain, with that stress exacerbated by the fact that it is a first come-first serve program. However, there is some potential good news on the horizon. The White House and Senate leader Mitch McConnell are trying to get another $250 bn of loans approved by Congress, which would add to the $349 bn that is already being deployed (apparently it is already being deployed).

FINSUM: It appears as though demand is exceeding supply, so this additional funding is likely to be very necessary.

(United States)

A lot of calculations are being done to see which states will be most hard hit by the current coronavirus lockdown. Within those assessments it is becoming clear that specific housing markets will be hit hard too. The states that look likely to have their housing markets fall the most are New Jersey, Maryland, and various counties elsewhere in the mid-Atlantic. Specifically, Sussex County (NJ), Charles County (MD), Atlantic County (NJ), Passaic County (NJ), Rockland County (NY), Orange County (NY), and Sussex County (DE).

FINSUM: These are all the locations you’d expect. The percentage of income it takes to manage a mortgage and other ownership expensive is quite high in these areas, so there is going to be a surge in delinquency.

(Washington)

Many brokers were hoping that the SEC might grant an extension of the deadline to be in compliance with the forthcoming Regulation Best Interest. Advisors must be in compliance with the rule by June 30th, a previously set date that SEC chief Jay Clayton just reiterated last week. The only reprieve the SEC granted was that the regulator would take “good faith efforts” into account in the initial phase.

FINSUM: Many hoped this deadline would be pushed back into the Fall, but the SEC is dead set on June 30th.

(New York)

Right now there is a big problem in earnings forecasts. UBS points out that many Wall Street analysts have been very slow to update their earnings estimates in the growing coronavirus lockdown. As such, the current spread between estimates and what actual earnings are likely to be is very wide. This often happens in crises, as analysts await more info and data before updating estimates, but it also generally means there is a much greater chance for volatility as earnings releases approach.

FINSUM: We expect that as Q1 earnings reporting approaches in the next few weeks, there will be some big attention-grabbing downward revisions, which could bring on additional bouts of downside-oriented volatility.

(New York)

Ever since the big stock rally of a couple of weeks ago, the predominant mood of Wall Street analysts has been decidedly bearish. Most big research teams have said markets have further to fall before they hit bottom. However, Morgan Stanley has just come out with a contrarian opinion. Commenting that “the worst is behind us”, the bank says it is time for investors to jump back into stocks in a big way. Summarizing their view, the bank said “With the forced liquidation of assets in the past month largely behind us, unprecedented and unbridled monetary and fiscal intervention led by the U.S. and the most attractive valuation we have seen since 2011, we stick to our recent view that the worst is behind us for this cyclical bear market that began two years ago, not last month”.

FINSUM: The worst of the health crisis is still ahead of us, but it could be the case that the worst of the asset selloff is over. Our lingering worry about this is that a mortgage crisis could be brewing as a result of the stop in the flow of money, so we are worried about another sharp downturn in coming months.

(New York)

Advisors who are receiving inbound interest from clients about annuities might be interested in browsing a list of top recent providers. AIG, John Hancock, Lincoln Financial Group, Pacific Life, and Prudential regularly figure among the top players in the space. That said, data from 2019 has highlighted a new leader of the back—Jackson. “Jackson has dominated the variable annuity market for the past 7 years. In 2019, Jackson diversified its annuity sales to focus on growing its fixed annuity market share, which propelled its overall growth in 2019”, according to an annuities strategist.

FINSUM: One thing that is interesting is that the annuities industry is actually getting a little less consolidated (which stands in contrast to other product sectors, e.g. ETFs). The top three providers only account for 22% market share, down from 25% in 2014.

(New York)

New York is the epicenter of the US coronavirus crisis, and the hit it is taking to its finances may be an example of the risk that the muni bond market is facing all across the country. Government revenue is taking a huge cut at the same time as expenditure to support the economy and its people is jumping. While the threat of a downgrade from its AA perch is only moderate, New York does have several other muni issuers that are looking much more dangerous. For example, the Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA) and the Transitional Finance Authority (TFA). The MTA, which runs the subway and other forms of public transportation, has taken a massive revenue hit during the lockdown, with ridership down 90%.

FINSUM: Certain muni credits are gong to be devastated. For instance, even though the MTA is getting $4 bn from the recent CARES act, it is still yielding 5% versus the 2% it yielded before the Covid eruption.

(Brussels)

Even though cases and deaths are still rising rapidly across the European continent, many governments within the EU are planning their re-opening from the Covid lockdown. Spain, Italy, Austria, and more are undertaking and/or announcing plans to reopen as soon as this coming Monday. The rollouts don’t look likely to be rapid anywhere, but their announcement may be received as an important turning point both socially and economically.

FINSUM: Markets are up big today and this is a significant part of it. Might the US start to re-open in a 2-3 weeks (?)—that is the question on investors’ minds.

(New York)

Yes, you read that right, Bank of America is forecasting a 35%+ GDP fall for the YEAR, not just Q2. The bank thinks the Coronavirus downturn is so bad that the US economy will shrink 7% in Q1, 30% in Q2, and 1% in Q3, a cumulative 35.55% for the year. The downturn would be the worst to ever strike the US.

FINSUM: This is by far the bleakest projection we have seen. Goldman, for instance, sees 19% growth in Q3. So if the economy shrinks 35% this year, what is fair market value for the S&P 500?

(New York)

Goldman Sachs, who has been a leader in putting out new research n the economic effects of the current lockdown, has issued new guidance on this week’s pending jobless claims. The bank thinks jobless claims will increase to a whopping 6m this week. If that happens, it would mean this week’s figure would exceed the record that stood until last week by a whopping 9x. The coming release will cover the week from March 22-28th. “Jobless claims will be the timeliest hard data point for assessing the depth of the recession and catching the start of the recovery”, says Goldman.

FINSUM: The period the release covers is not even likely to be the worst. There is probably still a few weeks before the full scale of the layoffs becomes apparent and the numbers peak.