(New York)

The market is right around all time highs and economic and earnings figures are healthy, all signs that the market is headed higher. That said, prices could take a dip at any time and many are worried about a reversal. Some are particularly worried about funds having to sell stocks to rebalance their holdings of equities versus bonds (which have performed poorly of late). So how can one profit from a market fall? Here is a good options strategy for doing so: buy S&P 500 put options at $287 and simultaneously sell $285 put options, both of which expire May 3rd. The market volatility has been low, so the options are cheap, and the spread strategy limits losses.

FINSUM: If you are just playing for volatility based on a likely rough month-end rebalancing, then this could be a good strategy.

(New York)

A top hedge fund manager known for correctly calling both the 200 and 2008 crises, has just put out a very bearish call. Jeremy Grantham, from GMO, is warning investors that the next 20 years of returns are going to be very disappointing. Grantham thinks that even a dovish Fed can’t save this market, saying “you can’t get blood out of a stone”. His view is that the market will return only 2% a year for the next decade, way lower than the ~6% average. “This is not incredibly painful, but it’s going to break a lot of hearts when we’re right”.

FINSUM: We have personally met Grantham and respect him, but this view is ridiculous to us, as it would be from anyone. Tell what the market might do for the next 2-3 years, fine, but making a call on the next two decades is hopeless.

(New York)

Stocks are once again nearing all-time highs, which is understandably making investors nervous about a repeat of the fourth quarter occurring. While that fear is healthy, the reality is that the underlying conditions of the market are a world different now. Not only are valuations lower, but the economy is looking robust, and perhaps most importantly of all, the Fed has let off the gas pedal with hikes, which puts recession risk much lower. All of these factors seem to conspire to make a perfect environment for stock price appreciation.

FINSUM: Anyone who reads FINSUM knows we lean towards bearish news, but the truth is that our better judgment is telling us that now is probably a time to be optimistic, as the trifecta of reasonable valuations, a solid/strong economy, and a dovish Fed, are in place.