Eq: Total Market
(New York)
Well, it has finally happened, but not as anyone expected. The whole industry has been watching for the first zero fee ETF, which just happened with SoFi, but now they are getting the first negative fee ETF. While zero fee index mutual funds debuted last year, ETFs only just got there, until the debut of the SALT Financial Low TruBeta US Market ETF. For every $10,000 invested in the new fund, the issuer will pay you $5. However, as you may have expected, there is a catch. The catch is that once the fund gets over $100m in AUM, its regular fee of 0.29% kicks in.
FINSUM: This is nothing more than a sales gimmick (and they haven’t even structured it well). However, it is indicative of the trend things are heading in.
(New York)
In one of the most alarming bits of news we have seen about the economy is some time, new data out on the hiring market is showing a bleak trend. The US economy almost failed to produce any new jobs in February, with the total job creation figure at just 20,000. That is a major step down from the hundreds of thousands of new jobs investors had been used to seeing each month. The number is a meteoric fall from the 311,000 created in January, and way under the forecast of 180,000. Following the data, a senior member of the Fed reiterated that the central bank should take no actions on rates until at least the middle of the year.
FINSUM: This is very scary, but there is an important motto to remember here—one point does not a trend make.
(New York)
There are a lot of worrying signs out there right now, but one thing that has bolstered optimism is the strength of the stock market in 2019. That said, there are signs appearing that underlying fundamentals are weakening. In particular, daily moves are shrinking, down from 0.9% in the 4 months leading to February, to just 0.4% in February. The slowdown in trading momentum is not only worrying in its own right, but also because the exact same trend appeared before the falls of February and December 2018.
FINSUM: Our counter argument is that average index moves were quite small through several solid years between 2014 and 2018, so it dos not necessarily indicate a problem.
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(New York)
Wall street bulls are becoming an endangered species, or so says the Financial Times. In a worrying sign for stocks, investors are increasing their cash balances, a move that supports the flood of bearish outlooks out there right now. Most analysts have a fairly pessimistic view of the market, with many calling for a recession and market downturn by the end of 2020. Precious few have bullish views, leaving Krishna Memani, CIO of OppenheimerFunds, in a unique spot in that he thinks we are in the middle of a 20-year bull market.
FINSUM: Most everyone has gotten very bearish in their medium term outlooks. Counter indicator?
(New York)
New payroll data has just been released and it is not saying anything positive about the underlying economy. According to ADP payroll figures, the US economy created 183,000 jobs in February, under estimates of 190,000 and well below the total of 300,000 in January. According to Moody’s analytics, “The economy has throttled back and so too has job growth”. The slowdown is most acute in the retail and travel industries and at smaller companies.
FINSUM: This is a pretty sharp pullback from January. The total number is still positive, but it will be interesting to see if this becomes a trend.
(New York)
JP Morgan is joining the bullish bandwagon. While fear that the rally has been too fast permeates across the markets, JP Morgan is stepping in to say that they think the market has plenty of runway higher. The bank thinks stocks have a good tailwind behind them as a trio of positive factors exist: a dovish fed, a stable yield curve, and pending US-China trade deal. The bank thinks that stocks look like they did right after the 2015-2016 correction cycle, a period right before a big bull run.
FINSUM: We are starting to think that shares may have some good runway left. The correction in P/E ratios was a very healthy adjustment to end the year, and the macro situation is looking positive.