Displaying items by tag: economy

The most successful macro investors don’t rely on predictions, they rely on true diversification. Rather than attempting to forecast markets, they construct portfolios of uncorrelated or negatively correlated assets that improve returns without adding risk. 

When multiple asset classes move independently, investors can use modest leverage to amplify gains while maintaining controlled volatility. This approach allows a portfolio with the same 5% volatility to generate higher expected returns simply by expanding exposure across uncorrelated assets. 

However, the strategy requires vigilance, as correlations can shift suddenly, undermining diversification’s benefits. 

Finsum: The foundation of long-term macro success lies in true diversification, careful leverage, and disciplined risk management.

From 2021 to 2024, the U.S. saw a record surge in immigration, much of it from people crossing the southern border without visas. Many were released into the country to seek asylum or given temporary protection, and millions entered the labor force. 

By mid-2024, tougher policies and more deportations slowed the inflow sharply. Economists say fewer immigrants could mean slower population and job growth, which may weigh on the broader economy. 

Studies show immigration tends to boost economic output while having little effect on inflation. Looking ahead, stricter policies could further reduce growth if fewer workers are available, especially if mass deportations are carried out.

Finsum: For now, the lasting impact will depend on whether immigration levels stabilize or continue to decline.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday he is optimistic that the U.S. and China are closing in on a trade agreement. In an interview with CNBC, he noted that upcoming talks ahead of November’s scheduled reciprocal tariffs have become increasingly productive. 

Bessent suggested Beijing now recognizes that a deal is within reach, even after months of back-and-forth since tariffs were first announced in April. 

While China initially faced duties as high as 145%, those measures have been suspended through Nov. 10 to allow negotiations to continue. He also highlighted that U.S. allies are frustrated by the surge of Chinese goods into their markets, a dynamic adding urgency to the talks. 

Finum: With the U.S. trade deficit with China already narrowing sharply in 2025, there could be a strong incentive to reach a trade deal as soon as possible. 

The July jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 73,000, with major downward revisions to previous months, signaling that the U.S. economy may be slowing more sharply than expected. This has fueled recession concerns, especially as three-month average job gains dropped to just 35,000 and consumer spending, the key driver of GDP, remains tepid. 

Economists point to Trump-era tariffs and weakening labor market data as contributing factors, with some suggesting we may be on the brink of a recession, though GDP still rose 3% in Q2 due to import timing. 

Market reactions were swift: the Fed is now widely expected to cut rates in September, while stocks wavered amid political backlash and uncertain economic signals. Despite the White House expressing confidence, housing and manufacturing data continue to falter, and experts warn of potential consumer pullback. 

Finsum: While some remain optimistic about a soft landing, the outlook is increasingly clouded by high inflation, policy risk, and weakening employment trends.

With U.S. GDP dipping negative in Q1 and tariffs clouding the policy outlook, concerns are mounting over how resilient the American consumer truly is. Rising credit card delinquencies point to financial strain, especially among lower-income, lower-FICO borrowers, while looser post-pandemic underwriting standards and inflation have only added pressure. 

In contrast, higher-income consumers—especially homeowners—have largely weathered the storm, thanks in part to low fixed-rate mortgages and tighter lending practices in recent years. 

This divergence is pushing savvy investors to focus on more defensive segments like asset-backed residential credit and small business loans with strong underwriting. While these may offer slightly lower yields, they come with greater resilience and the potential for long-term stability amid an increasingly bifurcated market. 

Finsum: As credit performance grows more uneven, navigating this environment requires a sharper eye on borrower quality and a flexible, informed investment approach.