(New York)

Stocks are roughly flat on the year, and there is a growing body of evidence that we may have finally come to the end of this economic and market cycle. Commercial construction is slowing, car sales have peaked, and banks are tightening lending standards even as demand is falling—all signs of an economy headed downward. According to Mike Larsson of Weiss Ratings “It is the type of stuff you see at the end of credit and economic cycles … I am concerned about the durability of this market and economic expansion”.

FINSUM: Only time will tell if the economy slows down. If so, markets will probably follow suit. Q4 GDP numbers were not nearly as good as they looked, as without trade war related boosts, growth would have only been 0.6%.