(New York)

New economic data was released on the US economy and fourth quarter growth was a mixed bag. The economy expanded at 2.6% annualized in the fourth quarter, a decent number that exceeded estimates, but did nothing to change the overall downward direction of the economy. Consumer spending slowed in the quarter. The economy expanded at 4.2% in Q2 2018, 3.4% in Q3 2018, and 2.6% in Q4 2018.

FINSUM: The trend downward is clear on many levels. That said, this should have been expected as the benefits from the tax cuts continue to fade. We think the economy is in the late stages of its expansion, but so long as the Fed stays quiet, we could drift on solidly for a while.