(New York)

So those following the news will have noticed that Bank of America’s key stock market indicator, the “Bull & Bear”, has been flashing red for the last couple of weeks. Now, the brightness is getting stronger. The recent rush out of Treasuries and into stocks has been the fastest ever, which has BAML worried that markets are about to crash. The rotation amounted to $102 bn flowing into stocks in January alone, which BAML calls “massive”.

FINSUM: The move has been more of a stampede than a flow, but then again, there are a lot of reasons to be worried about rising rates, especially as new Fed leadership is coming in.

(San Francisco)

One doesn’t quite know how to feel about the news, but the gut instinct is that it is negative. Apple’s earnings came out yesterday, and the company reported its greatest profit ever. But guess what, sales came in weaker than expected for the new flagship iPhone X. iPhone sales dropped 1% in the fourth quarter (the most important time of year), which has scared many into thinking the new phone has not sparked the next replacement “super cycle” that the company and analysts hoped. Apple did mention that the quarter was a week shorter than in the previous year, and that iPhone sales would have been 22% higher had they been equivalent.

FINSUM: Okay so the note about the length of quarter is relevant, but the overall impression is that the iPhone X has failed to live up the hype. And it makes sense to us—have you heard any friends raving about the new iPhone? We certainly have not.

(Houston)

MLPs can perform well during periods of rising rates, such as in the last tightening cycle. While they are broadly more risky than bonds, they can provide good returns. Many MLPs collect inflation hedged payments, so they should perform better than bonds in a tightening environment. As an asset class, MLPs have been holding back on payouts, but these should accelerate in 2019 and 2020. Three names to look at are Enterprise Product Partners, yielding 6.1%, Magellan Midstream Partners, yielding 5.2%, and Antero Midstream Partners, yielding 4.8%.

FINSUM: Those yields look really juicy don’t they? And they are moderately inflation hedged, which is also quite promising. Worth a look.

(New York)

Okay, we are calling it. Officially. While some had been holding out hope that Bitcoin might regain ground back up to its peak of around $20,000, the bottom appears to have officially fallen out. The cryptocurrency is now trading under $8,000, down around 60% since its peak. The currency continues to suffer setbacks from regulatory efforts in various jurisdictions, and it has put bears firmly in control.

FINSUM: Bitcoin and cryptos will be around for a long time, but the price discovery for a realistic level is going to be painful.

(Houston)

Oil prices have been rising strongly on the global market. However, those gains took a breather yesterday when eye-opening new info emerged on the oil market—the US is now producing more than 10 million barrels of crude oil per day. The mark was hit in November, and arrived much sooner than anyone expected. The US has only broken that threshold twice in the past, both times in 1970.

FINSUM: Okay so our big concern with the oil market right now is that these higher prices are not sustainable. The fundamental oversupply of oil has not been solved. The only thing holding up prices is the fact that OPEC members, for the moment, are happy to let the US benefit disproportionately from their output cuts. This output figure might change that.