(Washington)

The midterms are finally over, and with it the possible end to the volatility of the last month. Many on Wall Street now say stocks are ready to gain as buying fever takes over. The election went almost exactly as expected, which has set up a possible goldilocks scenario for markets. With Congress split, it is likely that policy gridlock will take over, a situation many think is ideal for stocks. The idea is that the less government does, the more room the market has to operate uninhibited.

FINSUM: The key here is that a split Congress means there likely won’t be any huge policy changes over the next two years. That seems favorable for stocks given the political uncertainty over the last 24 months.

(Washington)

This midterm election might have ended up being very consequential for muni bond markets. Some in the muni market feared the possibility of the Republicans maintaining control of both the House and Senate because of how further tax changes could have hurt the finances of municipalities. However, now that Congress is split, the outlook seems more favorable. The reason why is that Congress now looks more likely to restore a tax exemption for a debt refinancing strategy that is often used by local governments.

FINSUM: Just like in other asset classes, having a split Congress looks favorable for munis.

(Washington)

The midterm elections are finally in the rearview mirror, and generally speaking, the results are exactly what the market expected. That means it may be time for a rush back into stocks after the turmoil of the last month. One analyst put it this way, saying “Following this week’s volatility and the FANGs selloff this week, we’re likely to see traders getting back in and buying the dip. The elections have been a win for both the Republicans and the Democrats, and this will bring balance to the market”.

FINSUM: We do suspect investors will breath a sigh of relief. Firstly, things went according to plan, but secondly, a split Congress is in some ways the best case scenario for stocks.

(New York)

Something very ominous has been occurring in junk bond markets over the last week. The lowest tier of junk credits—which had been outperforming the market for much of this year—have been getting hammered. There has been a crash in CCC credits. According to Bank of America, since early October CCCs “have lost 3.25% in total and 3.50% in excess returns … effectively wiping out five months of performance”. That contrasts with the highest quality credits in the junk universe, which appreciated.

FINSUM: CCC had been doing quite well, so one can see this either as a normal return to earth, or early signs of trouble.

(Washington)

Well the midterms are finally here. However, one thing has become apparent—how these elections will affect financial advisors has not been discussed nearly enough. One of the big concerns advisors should have is about what happens if the Democrats take the House. In this scenario, it seems likely regulation would grow much toughed as fire & brimstone-like Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) would taken the helm of the House Financial Services Committee. Additionally, Republican-led deregulatory measures could be scuttled. One area of possible positivity could be on new legislation for retirees, including new measures to encourage people to save for retirement.

FINSUM: Perhaps the biggest worry regards some sort of defeat of the new SEC rule with renewed support for the DOL rule 2.0. The Democrats fiercely advocate for a comprehensive fiduciary standard, so their ascendance in the House could lead to that becoming a reality.