China’s new tariffs on U.S. energy imports are expected to hit the metallurgical coal market the hardest, given its role in steel production. While crude oil and LNG trade between the two countries is small, with minimal global disruption anticipated, U.S. coking coal made up nearly 12% of China’s seaborne imports in 2024. 

If these tariffs make American coal uncompetitive, China’s steelmakers will need to turn to other suppliers, most likely Australia and Canada. This shift could force China to pay a premium, as these countries already have strong demand from India, the largest global importer of coking coal. 

A reshuffling of trade routes might occur, with China buying more Australian coal and India offsetting that by sourcing more from the U.S., though not without some initial price volatility. As coking coal prices have been falling, Australian exports could gain a pricing edge if Chinese buyers pivot, while U.S. producers might face challenges securing alternative markets.

Finsum: Pay attention to the commodities circuit, as tariffs start to take hold, retaliatory efforts could spawn ways to generate alpha.