Displaying items by tag: ETFs

(New York)

Every time there is a bout of volatility, the financial media, and inevitably a few market analysts, forecast that ETFs may be at the center of the next flare up. Yet for the most part, ETFs have held up very well to periods of turmoil. Despite this solid performance though, the creeping logic that they might have a problem lingers. The Financial Times has just posted an article which argues that just as ETFs have managed to magnify the rise in equities, they will also exacerbate the fall. Since so many assets are now in passive funds, the risk of a herd mentality—with all investors having similar stop-loss orders—leading to a big selloff seems likely. Further, since there are fewer active managers playing the role of contrarians as the market falls, who is going to be there to insulate the market when it begins to tumble?

FINSUM: The ETF structure has proven itself quite resilient so far. We are not saying there won’t be a problem, but we feel like the underlying problem in the next meltdown might not have to do with ETFs themselves, rather it may just be magnified by them.

(New York)

Junk bonds have had a rough monthly, and it is not hard to see why. The rise in yields and the anxiety about stocks have combined to push yields on junk steeply higher, from 6.18% on October 1st to 6.61% now. In aggregate, the bonds are down 1%+ this month. However, the truth is that the losses could have been much worse, and within that idea, is an important story. That story is that ETFs, which have offered much greater ease of access to investors, actually seemed to have supported prices in the recent turmoil. The head of bond trading at Oppenheimer put it best, saying “The ETF market, which was supposed to subtract liquidity from credit markets, is actually adding liquidity by aggregating the risk and bringing in people who want to take macro risk as opposed to micro bond level risk … The ETF market ends up providing the live bid-ask spread that even the credit markets themselves cannot generate”.

FINSUM: This is a fascinating argument as it runs counter to the long-running narrative about how fixed income ETFs could cause a big blow up because of a “liquidity mismatch” between ETFs and the underlying asset.

(New York)

With rates rising and yields finally responding in a big way, you may have been wondering which ETFs tend to perform well in such periods. With that in mind, here is a list of the best performing ETFs in periods of rising rates (since 2008). The stats are from thirty day periods of rising rates, which have occurred 18 times since 2008. The best four are: VanEck Vector Oil Services ETF (6.53% average gain), the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (4.9%), the United States Oil Fund ETF (4.54%), and the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (3%).

FINSUM: Oil and banking, not really a surprise, but certainly a good reminder for investors. The worst performing funds in the same period tended to be gold funds.

(New York)

If rising rates weren’t scaring you a week ago, they surely are now, as the weight of rate rises has finally hit markets in a big way. With that said, here are some ETFs to help offset or benefit from rate hikes. Vanguard’s Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) is a good bet, with an expense ratio of just 0.07% and a yield of about 3%. Another interesting one is the Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN). The loans underlying this fund have their yields reset every 30 to 90 days, so your payout keeps rising with the market. The fund yields 4.19% and costs 0.65%. Lastly, take a look at the Fidelity’s Dividend ETF for Rising Rates (FDRR), which focuses on dividend growth stocks, a group that has historically performed well during periods of rising rates.

FINSUM: This a nice group of options, all of which are quite different from each other.

(New York)

One of the most ominous signs surrounding the equity market this year are the inflow numbers into stock funds. In 2017, $517.2 bn of new money flowed into US ETFs and mutual funds from the start of the year through September. This year that number is down by almost 50% for the same period, as only $281.7 bn has flowed in. Actively managed mutual funds are seeing net withdrawals. According to Deloitte “It feels like investors are in the early stages of positioning themselves for a potential downturn … [they] are returning to cash and relatively defensive positions”.

FINSUM: Retail inflows and outflows have never been a very good indicator of coming market performance (much like sentiment), so take these figures with a grain of salt.