(New York)

Despite a tumultuous market over the last few weeks, stocks are at least maintaining their ground. This may give investors hope that prices can make a turnaround and the bull market can resume. However, beware history, as in previous periods of Fed tightening, valuation multiples have tended to decline, a fact that spells trouble for this market.

FINSUM: If higher rates mean lower multiples, then the 18-month outlook is not too strong for this market. However, the economy may not be as strong as many expect (look at the most recent jobs report), which could keep the Fed at bay.

(San Francisco)

Tech stocks have had a poor last couple of months. March was especially brutal, with tech falling 4%. And while some think tech stocks still look like a good bet, Barron’s has put out an article based on a BAML opinion which contends that tech stocks look very vulnerable. The key reason why is what the piece calls an “Occupy Silicon Valley” mindset (recalling the Occupy Wall Street movement from several years ago). This mindset leaves the Valley at risk in two very core ways. Firstly, by regulation, which the government (and the public) seem increasingly intent upon delivering. And secondly, to a tax raid, especially if government finances continue to deteriorate.

FINSUM: We are of a mixed mind on tech right now. On the one hand, these arguments hold water with us. But on the other, the underlying businesses of tech companies are strong and this could all blow over.

(New York)

Fidelity, one of the largest US wealth managers, is shaking up its fees, and not just in small pockets of the business. The company is moving to a single unified fee schedule that works entirely by how much assets under management a client has with Fidelity. Existing clients will have their fees frozen so as to avoid paying more, but for many, services will cost less than before, while in certain areas they will cost more. Fidelity is also cutting the cost of its robo advisor to 0.35%.

FINSUM: This is happening across the industry, and this sort of move was led by Merrill in 2016. Nonetheless, it is a pretty significant change.

(New York)

As we have told readers, we have been keeping our antennae up for signs that an economic downturn may be on its way. Well, the biggest one of all just showed its head, and investors need to take notice. An important part of the rates market just showed an inverted yield curve. The one-month U.S. overnight indexed swap rate is now inverted, and this implies some expectation of a lower Fed policy rate after the first quarter of 2020, says JP Morgan. The Bank summarizes the situation this way, saying “An inversion at the front end of the U.S. curve is a significant market development, not least because it occurs rather rarely … It is also generally perceived as a bad omen for risky markets”.

FINSUM: If the market thinks rates are going to be lower in 2020, that means parts of the bond market are expecting a recession between now and then. Take notice.

(Beijing)

The US and China are currently in a hot-under-the-collar spat over trade. Each side is proposing to raise tariffs in response to the other, and there is no end in sight. Well, China may be changing gears and adding a new weapon—Yuan devaluation. Beijing is reportedly exploring how to use devaluation as a tool in a trade war. Weakening the Yuan would make Chinese goods cheaper to buy overseas and could be a tool to boost exports. At the same time, it makes it harder for Chinese companies to buy overseas goods.

FINSUM: While on paper it sounds promising, intentionally weakening the currency would give weight to claims (most loudly by Trump) that China is a currency manipulator, which could turn favor against Beijing.