Oil prices have started to recede but that could just be temporary as reserves flooding isn’t a permanent solution. While demand destruction is possible if oil remains elevated near $130 a barrel, international countries are feeling the pain. Developing economies in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa are being pushed to the limits with energy cost burdens. That effect could trickle into the US. Latin America is already experiencing demand destruction. If oil prices climb and stay above $100 a barrel, energy costs could burden Americans and lead to a recession, but given the security on other energy fronts—unlike in Europe—the US is in a better position to weather the storm.

Finsum: Demand destruction driving a recession is unlikely in the US alone, but if international markets are hit heavily, globalization could cause trickle effects in America.

The bond market has given investors pause, and the international bond market especially so. While continuing Covid-19, international war, and rising rates may scare investors, international bonds still add enough diversification to justify their place in the portfolio. Investors are more worried about inflation/interest rates now than Ukraine and Russia, and that risk is heightened domestically. As the Fed hikes rates, yields will rise and hurt domestic bond and equity portfolios. The Euro area has significantly less interest and inflation risk in the near term. Additionally, the deglobalization of covid is slowly going away, and as markets open up that will only improve the position of international bonds.

Finsum: ETFs with large exposure are best in international markets because tensions surrounding global issues are heightened right now. 

According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co commodities could hit record territory and climb as high as 40% in the upcoming months. Investors tilting their portfolios into commodities are doing so in response to rampant inflation. Commodities might be at relative highs but there is lot of reason these prices could further elevate. Russia’s invasion pushed commodities prices higher as grains, metals, and fossil fuels were all affected. Goldman Sachs has also pushed raw materials as an inflation hedge.

Finsum: The trickle-down effect of oil prices alone could further boost commodities in the coming months.

Former President of the NY Federal Reserve, the most powerful branch in the system, said that the Fed is going to have to inflict losses on bond and equity investors if it wants to manage inflation.  Dudley who served for almost a decade at the Fed, said they are also navigating other issues like labor market tightness and supply-chain disruptions which will make it difficult to navigate. This view however stands in stark contrast to the ‘Fed put’ where investors rely on the Fed to not tighten monetary policy too quickly in order to maintain stable equity prices. 

Finsum: Higher rate hikes are definitely a possibility, and even dovish Presidents are looking like hawks.

Acquisitions and launches are running hot in direct indexing and in an attempt to match rival Fidelity, Charles Schwab announced the launch of their new direct indexing products. The funds will be available starting on April 30th, but unlike Fidelity’s ultra-low initial investment of $5k, Schwab will require a $100,000 minimum. They want their direct index investors to have a better conceptualization of the market and think the minimum will attract this. The launch comes fresh off of tax season and will hopefully drive interest as tax is an advantage of DI. Schwab will concentrate on the tax advantages of their custom offerings as opposed to ESG or other flavors popular with these funds.

Finsum: The timing of this launch could put investors over the hump when it comes to taking advantage of tax-loss harvesting with their DI products.