Oil prices have begun to stagnate just a hair, but they are still high enough to spur lots of production. U.S. oil output is expected to be 12.86 million barrels a day according to East Daley Capital, which is a 23% increase from their December forecast. Most of the increased production will come from shale Fields in the Permian Basin, as elevated prices can sustain drilling and production here. Additionally, supply chains are relatively more lubricated, the Russia-Ukraine conflict looks ongoing, and a massive Covid resurgence seems like a small probability. The Dallas said profits are more than sustainable to continue drilling in the Permian Basin and other shale sites.

Finsum: This increased production could be enough to finally cap the upward moving gas prices, but that effect could take some time.

Oil prices have begun to stagnate just a hair, but they are still high enough to spur lots of production. U.S. oil output is expected to be 12.86 million barrels a day according to East Daley Capital, which is a 23% increase from their December forecast. Most of the increased production will come from shale Fields in the Permian Basin, as elevated prices can sustain drilling and production here. Additionally, supply chains are relatively more lubricated, the Russia-Ukraine conflict looks ongoing, and a massive Covid resurgence seems like a small probability. The Dallas said profits are more than sustainable to continue drilling in the Permian Basin and other shale sites.

Finsum: This increased production could be enough to finally cap the upward moving gas prices, but that effect could take some time.

Goldman told their investors that their best-case scenario for stocks had the S&P closing 2022 at 4,700, which might mean a 4% increase through the end of the year, but it would still finish below 2021’s close of 4,766. However, their worst-case scenario is very dower and predicts equities tumbling 21%. This scenario has the U.S. falling into a recession. Recession probability is higher than normal right now too as the US saw a 2-and 10-year yield curve investigation which has been the strongest indicator of a recession since the Great Depression.

Finsum: We wouldn’t pick a fight with the yield curve however, there is substantially more inflation pressure in this yield curve than in the previous ones reducing the probability of a recession.

Acquisitions and launches are running hot in direct indexing and in an attempt to match rival Fidelity, Charles Schwab announced the launch of their new direct indexing products. The funds will be available starting on April 30th, but unlike Fidelity’s ultra-low initial investment of $5k, Schwab will require a $100,000 minimum. They want their direct index investors to have a better conceptualization of the market and think the minimum will attract this. The launch comes fresh off of tax season and will hopefully drive interest as tax is an advantage of DI. Schwab will concentrate on the tax advantages of their custom offerings as opposed to ESG or other flavors popular with these funds.

Finsum: The timing of this launch could put investors over the hump when it comes to taking advantage of tax-loss harvesting with their DI products. 

BlackRock sent waves through the market announcing they were slashing fees from 0.04% to 0.03% for the largest bond fund in the world the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG). This wasn’t the only move they made as equity funds LRGF and INTF got their fees reduced as well. The fee battle is a prominent part of the game as lower expense ratios definitely garner more attention from investors. Previously BR had reduced fees on other fixed-income products as part of the escalating competition with Vanguard.

Finsum: FI income investors should keep an eye out, with prices and fees at lows, bond market ETFs could be in the ‘buy the dip’ territory’.