(Washington)

Amazon has been in President Trump’s crosshairs since the election, but the president has recently upped his rhetoric about bringing regulation to the company and the tech industry. The push has spooked stock markets. However, news is out that Amazon is making a push of its own. The retailer is building a huge army of lobbyists in Washington to combat the rising risk of regulation. Since Trump’s election, the company has doubled its staff of in-house lobbyists to 28, giving it more than double Google’s manpower.

FINSUM: The rumors coming out of the White House—that this is all just rhetoric—seems encouraging (if you are an investor). However, Amazon seems to be taking the risk seriously, which it should.

(New York)

The bond market is scaring a lot of investors right now. It is caught between the likelihood for higher rates and fears over a recession. With that in mind, we thought our readers would be interested to hear some thoughts from WisdomTree Financial, who has put out their “highest conviction fixed income trade” over the next two years. While shorter term duration bonds look attractive, especially one- to three-month bills, WisdomTree says investors should move into floating rate treasuries instead. The US floating rate note (FRN) debuted in 2014 and the rate floats based on the 13-week t-bill yield plus a spread. Coupons are paid quarterly.

FINSUM: So shorter duration bonds look attractive because their yields are strong relative to longer maturities and they have less sensitivity to rates. The FRN seems to accomplish the same goal.

(Beijing)

While the market might have taken a sigh of relief yesterday when the US tried to tone down the threat of a trade war with Beijing, make no mistake, China’s debut of a new package of tariffs is nothing to take lightly. The country proposed 25% tariff hikes on 106 US imports, including big ones like soy beans, cars, and chemicals. ““America’s measures [to impose tariffs] have violated the rules of the World Trade Organization and have seriously violated China’s legal rights”, said the country’s foreign ministry. “China does not want a trade war because no one will emerge as a winner in a trade war … but if someone insists on fighting a trade war, we will be there”, said the Chinese vice-minister of commerce.

FINSUM: So we are in a catch 22 with imposing higher tariffs. China has gotten the better of the deal for decades, but changing the terms is not going to be easy because of how big a consumer the country has become.

(Washington)

The market is increasingly worried about a big regulatory push against the tech industry. Amazon, along with Facebook, are dead center in the bullseye of the push. However, Bloomberg tells investors not to be too worried. The reason why is that according to five sources inside the White House, there are no active discussions or planning about any regulation that would impact the ecommerce retailer. Even in the case of the Post Office, which Trump has focused on, rates are set by a commission, and the organization is legally barred from charging any shipper less than its cost of delivery, meaning Amazon can’t be underpaying.

FINSUM: This is quite relieving if you are an Amazon investor. However, beyond any immediate threats, we do agree that the government is going to have to reconsider anti-trust regulation in light of how data is being used an abused by large tech companies.

(New York)

Goldman Sachs has been pushing into a lot of new business lines over the last few years—consumer lending being the principal one, as well as further into wealth management. However, the company is in the midst of launching yet another—business banking. The bank is working on a suite of tools for large businesses to use, such as deposit accounts, cash management tools etc. The move is seen by some as an odd one, as such services are dominated by huge-balance sheet integrated banks, such as JP Morgan and Citi.

FINSUM: This could become a good business, but it is not clear that Goldman has any strategic advantage to gain market share.

(New York)

While there are a lot of concerns about the bond market right now, one of the risks that is being ignored is credit quality itself. Well, there might be a bomb set to go off in credit. In particular, there appear to be major risks in the Triple BBB category of bonds. This group is considered investment grade, but only just so. There are currently $2.5 tn in US debt with this rating, double the level of five years ago, according to Morgan Stanley. MS says that in a downturn, investors may abandon this type of debt, raising rates for the borrowers, and in turn exacerbating the economic contraction. All of which seems likely to hurt the stock market.

FINSUM: This part of the bond market is so huge, that an exodus from this area would greatly wound the economy.

(New York)

We at FINSUM have been keeping a close eye on the economy, and in particular, looking for any signs of the end of the current business cycle. Today, we might have found one. One of the big worries of economists and investors of late has been the slowdown in consumer spending—a concern in its own right, but not conclusive. Today, we might be seeing why. Lenders all over the US have been tightening their businesses and lending out less cash. That has left less money available for purchases. From 2011 through the end of 2016, credit standards had loosened, but since then they have tightened, even as wages have grown and unemployment has fallen.

FINSUM: This decline in lending seems to show that many lenders think there is more risk than reward in the economy, which may in turn bring on the recession they sense is coming.

(San Francisco)

Tech has been doing very poorly lately. Between the heat on Facebook and the growing threat of regulation to Amazon and other big tech companies, things look bleak. However, they may not be as bad as they seem. The reason why is two-fold. Firstly, many experts think any tech regulation won’t be hugely disruptive to the industry. Secondly, the underlying businesses look strong and the worries about regulation have not really dented earnings expectations. All of this leads many to believe that the whole selloff is overdone and things will blow over.

FINSUM: We can’t see any major tech regulations coming out that would really dent the industry, so all else equal, we do think the selloff might be overdone.

(New York)

Barron’s put out a very troubling article today. The piece contends that even great earnings are not going to save the current market rout. The reason why is two part. Firstly, worries about the broader economy, and things like regulation of tech, are overwhelming the influence of strong earnings. But secondly, markets have seen these good earnings coming for a year, and have already priced them in. Therefore, strong numbers’ influence on investors is weak. In fact, the good earnings are more of a risk than a boost at the moment, as any underperformance could cause a big bout of selling.

FINSUM: This makes perfect sense to us. Everyone has seen these earnings coming from a mile away and has been betting on them for a year. They definitely have more risk than upside right now.

(Atlanta)

The type of loans that fueled the Financial Crisis are making a comeback in a big way. Issuance of subprime mortgages is surging once again, with the total volume of loans issued in the first quarter doubling from a year ago. Such issuance fell to almost zero in the years after the Crisis, but specialist lenders have sent it surging yet again. The loans have been very popular in the debt markets as investors have been snapping up the loans. “[Investors] are definitely chasing yields. Whenever these deals come out, for the most part, they are oversubscribed”, says a New York hedge fund.

FINSUM: This is a bit worrying, but given how low the starting base for the market is, this is just not big enough to be a concern, yet….