(New York)

Despite the hopes of investors, yields moved higher yesterday, with ten-year Treasury yields now back above 3%. For a while the momentum higher had been stemmed, but yesterday saw yields move sharply upwards. The move got the Dollar back on track, but it left equities nervous about what may lay ahead. Some market watchers say the recent market moves are a preamble to a correction.

FINSUM: Markets (stock and bonds) are bouncing all around, essentially momentum-less. We think things are going to be this way until a strong narrative takes hold—either trade war and recession, or something that renews the bull market.

(New York)

Bank stocks have had somewhat of a rough time this year. Like the rest the of the market they have been subject to turbulence. However, Barron’s says that clear sailing might lay ahead, as the stocks are looking less risky and likely to have more gains. The reason why is that bank stocks have been showing less and less beta lately, meaning they are trading at less relative volatility to the market than previously. This will lower their cost of capital and keep things steadier as rates rise, which will be bullish for performance. According to one research analyst, “Higher rates will have a positive impact on earnings, loan growth appears to be picking up, and we expect further regulatory relief”.

FINSUM: Given that higher rates improve net interest margins for banks, and the fact that there is significant regulatory relief occurring, we are feeling optimistic.

(New York)

The Trump era of deregulation is really starting to play out for the financial services industry. On top of the collapse of the Volcker rule, banks might be about to enjoy a major concession from regulators: the assumption that short-term trades are automatically a violation of the rule. The Fed and other regulators are planning to drop the assumption that a position held by a bank for less than 60 days is a violation of the Volcker rule.

FINSUM: This would be a major development as banks would be left to comply with the rule on their own terms. That shifts the burden of proof onto regulators, who would now need to prove a trade was a violation.

(Washington)

Advisors have recently been feeling relieved about the fifth circuit court ruling that struck down the DOL’s version of the fiduciary rule. However, it may not be time to jump for joy yet. The fifth circuit is supposed to issue a mandate which vacates the rule, which takes it out of force. It is unclear why the fifth circuit court has not done so yet, but it is starting to make the industry nervous.

FINSUM: Most say the court simply has not gotten around to issuing the mandate yet, but that seems odd given it has been two months since the verdict. The next date to watch is May 16th, as that is the deadline for states and other entities to apply for appeals to the ruling.

(New York)

There is a lot of scuttlebutt in the wealth management industry about fee compression. The narrative is that there is much price competition across the industry and investment advisors are having to cut their fees and add services to stay relevant. Well, the reality is fees are actually moving higher. According to a new survey from FinancialAdvisor, many advisors are actually hiking fees between 10 to 25 basis points. The finding adds to another survey from Pershing which found that 84% of advisors had not changed fees in 2017, and those that did had hiked rather than cutting.

FINSUM: This is a very healthy sign for the industry, especially given the fee war going on in ETFs and the asset management industry.

(New York)

Individual bond sales to retail clients may be about to take a hit. The reason why is a new set of rules being enacted on brokers that require them to disclose the price at which they bought bonds before they sell them to clients (if it occurs on the same day). The idea of the rule is to give investors a clear idea of the price they are paying for bonds. Brokers are worried that the new rule will cut into their fees and lead investors to stop buying bonds in favor of bond funds.

FINSUM: So we understand the thrust of this rule, but as a counterargument, we ask our readers to consider: what other industries have to disclose their margins to customers during a transaction? When you buy a new iPhone, does apple need to say they have a 90% margin on the phone?

(New York)

Are you or your clients looking for income? Most seem to be. Income investments seem poised to do well over the next decade as more and more Baby Boomers retire and need income. Well, here are some of the best dividend stocks to take a look at. Unsurprisingly, they come from the group known as the dividend aristocrats, which are a group of companies that have raised dividends every year for twenty-five years. Here are some of the highest yielding names of the group: AT&T, Chevron, Target, Coca-Cola, Exxon-Mobil, and PepsiCo, among others.

FINSUM: So all these stocks are yielding well over 3%. However, the issue with them is that they have not performed very well over the last year.

(New York)

A lot of investors are worried about the stock market. The market has been essentially flat this year, but given fears over a looming trade war, a potential recession, and higher rates, there is much concern about the potential for falling prices. All that said, here is a factor that may boost markets, but doesn’t seem to be fully priced-in by the market: growing buybacks. Goldman Sachs forecasts that companies in the S&P 500 will buyback a record $650 bn worth of stocks this year, far outpacing the record set in 2007. This should lead to a buyback yield of about 3% for investors, which combined with the dividend yield should net investors about 5%.

FINSUM: A record setting year for buybacks would be a big boost for markets that are lacking a growth story at the moment.

(New York)

Advisors considering putting client capital into smart beta funds need to be prepared for what to expect. The reality is that smart beta strategies tend to accentuate the returns of the market, or run counter to them altogether. In up times a smart beta strategy playing into the market’s strengths can do much better than the index overall, the opposite can happen in down markets. However, even in decent markets, many smart beta strategies can perform terribly because of the nature of the rise.

FINSUM: If you are just getting into smart beta funds, it is really important that you understand the strategy inside and out to make sure you understand how it will sit within your portfolio.

(Washington)

The saga of the fiduciary rule seems to be never ending. Odysseas had an easier time. Now, just when things were starting to look clear—the DOL rule is effectively gone and the SEC has proposed a new one—everything is murky again. A senior figure, Michael Piwowar, at the SEC has just resigned. According to InvestmentNews, “Mr. Piwowar’s departure could significantly delay a rulemaking that already was projected to last for months — or make it impossible to complete”. Piwowar was a major ally of SEC chief Clayton, and now there are an equal number of Democrats to Republicans on the SEC commission. Trump could try to replace Piwowar and Democrat Kara Stein (whose term has lapsed) all at once, but the Senate would need to fast track approval.

FINSUM: Even if everything gets fast-tracked by Trump, the Senate needs to get the approval done, and that very well may not happen soon, especially because the Democrats might take the Senate back.