(New York)

One of the very interesting aspects—which is thoroughly underreported—is that despite the rise of ETFs, mutual funds have held a major portion of market share in the advisor allocation business. One of the trends which has emerged is that the growth of ETFs has not really cost mutual funds as much as one would expect. Rather, advisors have just started to use them in different ways. ETFs are seen as better for broad passive exposure, but when it comes to active management, mutual funds are seen as the superior choice. This helps explain why smart beta and other forms of active ETFs have been relatively unsuccessful.

FINSUM: It is not mutual funds that have suffered from the shift to ETFs, rather it has been variable annuities and individual stocks. This is a quite a positive development for the asset management industry, in our opinion.

(New York)

Consumer confidence in the United States is at an 18-year high. The last time Americans registered a feeling of confidence this high was in September 2000. However, that could be a big problem for the stock market. Consumer confidence can prove a counter-indicator. The highest ever reading for the measure was recorded in May 2000, just before the Dotcom crash. Small business confidence is even higher, running at a 45-year peak. According to one analyst, “[To] any market historian, that does not guarantee a low-risk market, or another big bull market leg on the horizon”.

FINSUM: These kind of ultra-high measures do worry us as we feel healthy gains come in periods of reasonable concern, not euphoria.

(San Francisco)

Two of Instagram’s founders have just left Facebook on acrimonious terms. The departures come six years after their company was bought by Facebook for about $1bn. They are leaving on poor terms because of recent changes Facebook has made which seem to prioritize Facebook’s growth at the expense of Instagram. Many analysts say the departures are a considerable negative for the stock, especially coming as part of a long string of troubles. There is also a serious threat that the two founders may come up with a competing product. Instagram accounted for 14% of Facebook’s revenue, or about $7.5 bn this year.

FINSUM: We don’t think a competing product is a worry, at least not yet. But image-wise, it does look like Facebook is a bit out of control.

(New York)

Treasury yields stayed pinned for most of this year. For many months it seemed like they were stuck in the ~2.85% range. This raised some hopes that we might have reached the crest in this hiking and rate rise cycle. However, Treasury yields have jumped considerably higher lately, and are now sitting close to their seven-year high of 3.11% from May. Yields have been moving higher as the trouble in emerging markets and Italy has waned, making investors turn to more pro-risk investments.

FINSUM: Yields are going to move in line with macroeconomic movements, especially right now. If the trade war worsens, or starts to show signs of hurting EM economies, expect a big retreat in yields.

(New York)

Value stocks have been hurting for years. They have lagged growth stocks considerably over the last decade, and have been underperforming growth stocks for so long that even some ardent value fans say the shares might never rebound. However, an increasing group of analysts are saying that value is set to stage a big comeback versus growth. Some indicators show that a reversal of growth stocks is imminent, and P/E ratios are running so high that value looks likely to appreciate. Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson thinks that the current rotating bear market will end with growth and small caps sinking.

FINSUM: We don’t see much of a catalyst for growth stocks sinking while value stocks rise. Further, if stocks fall, they could all fall in unison without value seeing any outperformance.

(New York)

The very public grudge match between JP Morgan and President Trump appears to be continuing, albeit in a more subtle way this week. Strategists at JP Morgan went on the record saying that one of the biggest risks to the market right now is that Trump overestimates the US economy and makes a major miscalculation in his trade war with China. The big worry is that Trump takes the trade war too far and sends China into a recession, which would then reverberate and cause a global reversal, shocking markets.

FINSUM: China experiencing a significant downturn could cause a chain reaction amongst EM and developed economies which could come back to sting the whole western world.

(New York)

Many investors may be looking for the best possible combination of high dividend yield and stability. Many companies with very high yields are not stable, so there is often a tradeoff between the two. With that in mind, here are three dividend stocks whose payouts should be reliable for decades to come. The first is a smaller REIT called CareTrust (4.6% yield), which is focused on growing its real estate footprint to handle the US’ aging population. Nike (1%) is another option. The dividend yield is not high, but it is hard to think of a more reliable payer. Finally, there is Canadian space stock, Maxar, which is growing strongly and offers a great dividend yield (considering how small and young it is) of 3.3%.

FINSUM: This is a serious mix of options from three entirely different sectors. Definitely some interesting choices to look into.

(Washington)

The trouble for Supreme Court justice-nominee Kavanaugh continues to pile up. Not only has one woman come forward with allegations of sexual misconduct, but now another has done so. Kavanaugh is set to give testimony, along with his accuser, on Thursday, but just as this was decided, a new accuser (this from his college years) has come forward. In a rare television interview, Kavanaugh confirmed yesterday that he had not sexually assaulted anyone, ever, and that he would not be withdrawing from the nomination hearings.

FINSUM: This is a very high stakes nomination considering the midterm elections are looming. There are certainly more fireworks to come.

(Atlanta)

The airline market has not been doing very well this year. Fuel prices and expanding capacity have weighed on the stocks. United is up big, but the rest of the pack is either in the red or up single digit percentages. Recently, there has been clear winners and losers, with United Continental, Delta, and Spirit being outperformers, and American, Alaska, and Southwest being laggards.

FINSUM: Airlines are an interesting sector, as each has its own unique characteristics, but they are all subject to similar woes. American Airlines has been a big loser this year, but some analysts think it could be the biggest gainer in the medium term.

(Portland)

Nike’s stock has been cruising this year, easily outpacing the broader market thanks to good earnings, new products, and the continued strength of “athleisure”. Shares are up 35% this year, and now it looks like they might head much higher as today’s earnings release is expected to be very strong. Many analysts are boosting their target prices, especially because gross margins look likely to expand on the back of less discounting and a shift towards the higher-margin direct-to-consumer business.

FINSUM: About a year ago, when Nike was going through a rough patch and losing market share, we thought investors should stick around. That has paid off.