(Washington)

The reality of the political environment in the US is making one thing very clear: it is a tentative time to buy or own healthcare stocks. While healthcare companies are currently performing well, the market is growing increasingly bearish about them, and with good reason. Democratic candidates have proposed an array of new national healthcare plans that all have degrees of disruption, some of them massive, to the status quo. That means the healthcare industry is facing a problem that is very hard to control and could cause extensive changes to their current operating paradigm.

FINSUM: Unless healthcare gets so beat up that it is worth taking a risk on the stocks just as a bet that the Democrats don’t win the election, it seems like there is asymmetric risk reward in the sector right now.

(Washington)

Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is running for the Democratic presidential bid, has just put forward a brazen new policy. She is calling for a large scale program to forgive student debt for millions of Americans. She wants to offer a $50,000 forgiveness program to those with incomes under $100,000. She plans to finance the overall program, which also includes making future tuition free, through a tax on the ultra wealthy. Her plan has faced some internal party criticism, because many times those with the highest debt are also those that went to elite colleges and tend to be at the higher echelons of the earnings spectrum.

FINSUM: While this is a LONG way from happening, it is worth thinking through, especially as other candidates are likely to adopt some form of it. In our view, the biggest beneficiary of this policy would be real estate, as it would enable a whole generation of Millennials and Gen Zers to buy homes because they would suddenly be unsaddled by student debt.

(Detroit)

The car industry has a big problem on its hands, and it is not something that can necessarily be solved with new technologies or better mpg. The problem is not even that that young people don’t want to buy new cars, it is that they don’t want cars at all. In fact, they don’t even care to have driver’s licenses. In 1983, half of all 16-year olds had licenses. In 2017, it was down to a quarter. Gen Z, those born after 1997, aren’t ageing into licenses and ownership either, as the rates of those who have licenses by 24 is falling. 16-year olds reportedly don’t care about the freedom of getting their own car anymore, as they have Uber and Lyft and increasingly just move from urban area to urban area as they age, where car ownership isn’t as ideal.

FINSUM: Not wanting your own car at 16 sounds almost unfathomable to older generations (including us), but it is a reality that is emerging.

(Washington)

The anti-fiduciary rule crusaders have been more successful than anyone could have imagined. Back in 2017, the slew of industry groups fighting the DOL’s rule looked woefully outgunned. But in time, they completely succeeded. They are coming off another fresh victory as well—in Maryland—but the next battle looks to be even bigger. That battle will be in New Jersey, a state that seems to have taken the stage as a leader in the state-level fiduciary rule push growing across the US. Unlike Maryland, New Jersey is committed to a rule, which makes this fight more substantial. The new rule in NJ also has the support of some advisors there, giving the proposal more traction.

FINSUM: In our view, it will likely be harder to stop the spread of these state level fiduciary rules than it was at the national level, if only because it is harder to concentrate opposing resources across the whole US. Also, if a state truly has conviction about the rule, it seems more likely to come to fruition.

(New York)

If you want to pick up some great bank stocks at a great discount, now is the time to do it. Despite great earnings, JP Morgan still looks inexpensive. Goldman Sachs does too. Both banks saw big trouble in their trading divisions in the first quarter, which has led to some attractive valuations. The problem for investors is that markets that keep doing what they have will not be bullish for the banks (i.e. low volatility), so options strategies may be the best way to play the situation.

FINSUM: Nothing would be better for this trade than if there was another big market disturbance that drove a bunch of volatility, which is quite good for trading revenue.

(New York)

Where is the economy headed? Investors seem to be torn at the moment. On the one hand they seem to feel that the economy must be headed south because of the long running expansion and recent inversion, but on the other, there is little data to really back up that claim. Accordingly, every new piece of economic data is being closely watched right now. The newest in is retail sales, which had fallen a bit recently. Today, though, is a different story, with March retail sales seeing their biggest jump in 18 months, rising 1.6% month on month.

FINSUM: Seeing evidence that consumers still look healthy is a testament to the fact that the underlying economy still looks strong.

(Washington)

Attorney General Barr held a press conference this morning as a prelude the to lightly redacted Mueller report that is being released today. Generally speaking, Barr stuck to his previous summary of the report, saying there was nothing that amounted to obstruction of justice or collusion. He did give some further details, however, mentioning that there were ten instances where Mueller highlighted possible obstruction of justice. As a response to the statements, the Democrats, led by Pelosi and Schumer, are calling for Mueller himself to testify as soon as possible.

FINSUM: The political chaos about this report will not abate until the text is released and Congress and the nation hear from Mueller. We think it will happen soon.

(Washington)

The Trump administration has slowly but surely exerted its influence on the SEC. After two and half years, the changes are reaching their zenith. The last Democrat at the SEC is set to step down later this year. He is technically entitled to stay through June 2020, but is likely to leave before the autumn, when he is set head back to academia. The departure will open the door to a more conservative appointment. It would also mean there are only three commissioners left at the SEC, two of whom are Republicans, giving them an advantage in SEC matters.

FINSUM: This could have all sorts of ramifications for policy, including the best interest rule. We expect this may have some significant impacts on the the BI rule plays out.

(New York)

The field for the Democratic nomination for the 2020 presidency could hardly be more crowded. 18 candidates have already declared, and a handful more, including heavyweights like Joe Biden, are expected to announce their candidacy. The big question right now is “who is leading?”. It is hard to answer perfectly, but two proxies—google activity by region, and fundraising, tell an interesting story. So far, it is Bernie Sanders as a clear leader, as he has garnered the most search and media interest and also leads in both self-funding and external fundraising by a wide margin. Kamala Harris has also garnered significant interest and and stands third in total funding. Sanders also leads in another interesting area—the share of small donations as a portion of total donations, a demonstration of a candidate’s total following.

FINSUM: Elizabeth Warren is also in the mix, but just from the early data we still think Bernie is going to be the candidate who faces Trump.

(New York)

Goldman Sachs put out a bearish article today that is calling for the tail end of this bull market. The bank thinks the rest of this year is going to be a dud and that PE multiples will not rise above 17. Therefore, they are suggesting a group of stocks that can thrive in such an environment. Here is a selection of 10 of their 20 choices: Texas Instruments, VeriSign, Gilead Sciences, Abbvie, Amgen, Starbucks, Lam Research, AT&T, Foot Locker, HanesBrands.

FINSUM: Appears like there are a lot of defensive stocks in this basket, which seems like a good plan for a sideways or bearish market.