(San Francisco)

Want to forecast at where Apple’s stock price is headed? There is a good trick for doing so. The method is to look at the earnings and share price moves of Apple’s suppliers. About a third of suppliers report earnings before Apple does, and many of them derive a high portion of their sales from the company. Therefore, one can fairly well predict Apple’s earnings and likely moves. For instance, Apple has been on a tear since its earnings on Tuesday, and it would have been easy to see from the previously released supplier earnings.

FINSUM: This will not always work and some of the value is probably eaten up by algorithmic traders, but still, it seems a good predictive indicator.

(New York)

So headline economic data has been good lately. Yet the markets are leaning towards a bearish view on the economy and a dovish view on the Fed. With such confusion, it is hard to figure out what might happen. Therefore, we are going to focus on some alternative economic indicators and today we found an interesting one: lumber prices are slumping badly at the time of year they are supposed to be rising. Lumber prices usually rise in the spring as builders stock up for construction. However, poor weather and a lack of construction is badly hurting prices. In May 2018 prices were at $639 per thousand board feet, now they are just $334, or down about 50%! Mills are cutting back production as a response.

FINSUM: That is a pretty alarming price drop and another sign that the underlying health of the real estate market is not good.

(New York)

Vanguard funds have been performing well for years. That performance, mixed with ultra low costs is the reason they have thrived over the last decade and now contend for being the largest asset manager. However, there is a little known reason they have done so well—they employ a patented system for minimizing taxes in mutual funds. Vanguard uses a trading technique employing “heartbeat” trades which move stocks between ETFs and mutual funds in such a way that completely eliminates the taxability of their capital gains. Vanguard employs the strategy on 14 funds, and those have reported a combined $191 bn in gains while reporting zero to the IRS. Vanguard says the technique is entirely legal and has a patent on it through 2023.

FINSUM: This is an excellent competitive advantage and we thought advisors would like the view under the hood as to why Vanguard is thriving as one of the very best fund providers.

(New York)

Want to know an asset class that has better risk-adjusted returns than equities over the decades and still has quite good liquidity? Look no further than external sovereign bonds, or the bonds issued in foreign currencies, like the Republic of Argentina 7.5% bond maturing in 2026. The bonds also have a low correlation to stocks, which means having both of them in the portfolio overall should produce lower volatility. The asset class has flown largely unnoticed because of a lack of a benchmark or return history (until now) and the fact that there have been a handful of notable sovereign crises in recent years.

FINSUM: A lot of people shy away from this asset class, but it definitely has a place in the portfolio. The lack of correlation and the good risk-adjusted returns make it attractive.

(Los Angeles)

Love Tesla cars but scared of their company’s cash burn and Elon Musk-related antics? There is a way to invest in the company without buying the stock. Tesla has issued automobile asset-backed securities, or bonds with coupon payments backed by lease payments from Tesla customers. Last year, the carmaker sold $1.5bn of such bonds, which are not backed by the company’s cash flow, but directly by lessee’s payments. One portfolio manager put it this way, “Oftentimes, investors get Tesla the company and Tesla the car confused, but in this case, you really get to separate the two out”. The bonds issued have various tranches divided up by credit quality.

FINSUM: This seems like a smart way to invest in Tesla without all the volatility related to Elon Musk and the company’s cash flow struggles.

(New York)

One of the old adages of the market is to “sell in May and go away”, or get out of stocks in the summer and come back in the fall when everyone gets back to work. That axiom holds water when you look over many decades, but its record in recent years has been spotty, with summer returns over the last five years being quite solid (though still less than November-April). Over the last five years, the average return from May-October has been 4.31% while in November-April is has been 5.53%.

FINSUM: Anyone’s guess what will happen this year, but the last few summers have been more positive. 5 years is a pretty short sample size though.

(Washington)

Don’t look know, but market could be facing a big risk in September. Investors will remember that Congress voted to suspend the debt limit until March 1st. That date has come and passed and now the Treasury is using extraordinary measures to meet the US’ payment obligations. However, it says it will exhaust those options by September, meaning the US could end up in a major cash crunch.

FINSUM: Get ready for another early autumn political crisis over the budget, deficit, and debt ceiling.

(New York)

The markets are gleeful right now. Stocks are up 25% since their bottom in December, and things on the economic and Fed fronts look rosy. However, Citi says investors need to get out of some assets before “rain spoils the picnic”. The bank is worried about the difference between asset prices and underlying economic conditions (when looking globally). Its biggest area of worry is in corporate bonds, which have seen spreads to investment grade narrow sharply, especially in high yields, which look overvalued. Investment grade debt is troubling too, as debt levels jumped by their biggest amount in 18 years over the last 4 months. Citi thinks companies are burning through way too much cash for the growth levels they are achieving.

FINSUM: So Citi thinks this is going to be a bond market reckoning (which would surely impact stocks too). That is different than the consensus, but perhaps a good way to view the situation.

(New York)

A new poll of professional money managers has just been released, and the study shows that they think Trump is going to win in 2020. Amazingly, 67% of professional money managers say Trump will win the election versus just 28% who believe the Democratic candidate will win. What is eye-opening is that many polls outside the financial industry show the Democrats leading. Managers also scored the performance of Trump and the two chambers of Congress. Trump got the best grades of the three, but none of the scores were high.

FINSUM: This does not surprise us. All our business, both as it concerns publishing and advertising, is with professional money managers, and the one thing we know for sure is that the president has a very strong following in this community.

(Seattle)

Tell us a mega cap stock that has 50% upside in the near term. Not so easy. That is what makes the current discussion of Boeing so compelling. The stock has been hurt by the 737 MAX fallout after the Ethiopian Airlines crash in March. Yet, overall, the trend for Boeing and other aeronautics companies is strong. Jefferies analyst Greg Konrad finds the stock so compelling, he believes there is 50% upside. More than 65% of analysts covering the stock rate it a buy.

FINSUM: It seems like there is a pretty clear path to put the 737 MAX issues in the rear view mirror and get the stock back on track. Could be a good opportunistic buy.