(New York)

There has been a lot of speculation about whether there may be rate cuts this year. The Fed has been less than clear about this possibility, mostly indicating it just wants to stay put for the year. The Treasury market has been very vocal, however, with investors clearly indicating they expect rate cuts over the second half of the year. Now JP Morgan is weighing in, saying that the Fed is likely to cut rates twice by the end of the year, a prediction which precisely matches what markets are calling for. The ten-year Treasury yield fell below 2.1% recently.

FINSUM: We think the cut will come as a function of how the trade war plays out. Trump is certainly pushing the Fed’s hand, but we expect the central bank will remain “data dependent”.

(Chicago)

There is an enormous asset bubble that has engulfed much of the US, yet you probably haven’t even heard of it. That bubble is threatening a meltdown that has not occurred since the 1980s. Where is the bubble? In debt linked to farm land values. Despite falling grain prices for years, Midwest farm land has held its value very well. This has led to debt levels that hve not been seen since the farm debt crisis of the 1980s. Farm income has fallen by half since its peak in 2013, yet farm equity has only dropped 5%. According to the FT, “Farmers remain creditworthy in the eyes of banks, even as their incomes fall, because the collateral value of land remains high”.

FINSUM: That last sentence is very dangerous because it sets the stage for a doom loop of dropping values and high rates, and foreclosures, leading to even worse values. Many big lenders have a lot of money tied up here, and there are likely implications for muni bonds as well.

(New York)

One of the best indicators of the health of the economy from the last several years has been the strength of the labor market. In particular, low unemployment and jobless claims have highlighted a tight labor market traditionally associated with a strong economy. However, what if the opposite was the case? Recent academic studies show a new recession indicator: full employment. Historically, downturns have typically started about 12 months following the lowest unemployment rate reached in a cycle.

FINSUM: We are currently at 3.7% unemployment, which is VERY low. It seems like the economy is exactly in the “12 months from a recession” position, at least according to this research.

(San Francisco)

We ran a piece yesterday highlighting the risk of China using rare earth elements as a bargaining chip in the trade war. The US currently gets 80% of its rare earths from China, and the elements are used in everything from smartphones, glass, electric vehicles, and jet engines. The biggest loser if China blocks access could be Apple. The company is currently planning a ramp up in production for its new fall products, so according to Goldman Sachs “even a short term action affecting production could have longer term consequences for the company.”

FINSUM: It is hard to calculate the financial impact at this point, but we expect it could be significant given that these elements are key to smartphone production.

(New York)

REITs are having an outstanding year. The FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index is up almost 18% this year, well ahead of the market’s 12% gain. With the direction of rates and yields, it is easy to understand why. The question is which are the best REITs, which is not always easy to answer. Here are five of the best performers so far this year: DFA Real Estate Securities I (DFREX), Neuberger Berman Real Estate (NREAX), Principal Real Estate Securities (PRRAX), Cohen & Steers Real Estate Securities (PRRAX), DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities (RRRAX).

FINSUM: We like REITs right now. They have solid yields (e.g. 3%), and given the likely direction of rates, stand do well in terms of price appreciation.

(Dallas)

If you are looking for for a safe place to earn some yield in munis, look to Texas. Specifically, the Texas Permanent School Fund, a heavy weight in the muni market that backs $80 bn of debt. The fund has a triple A rating from multiple agencies and is one of the safest bets in the market. The bonds average a 1.9% yield, which is quite strong for the muni market, especially considering the average triple A only yields 1.7%.

FINSUM: This seems like a very strong credit, and one with a surprisingly good relative yield.

(Washington)

Given the relative dearth of information about the new DOL and SEC rules, analysis and true insight are hard to come by. However, today we have some interesting and relevant “talk” coming out of those close to the DOL. Evidently Trump’s chief of staff Mick Mulvaney has de facto taken over the rulemaking processes at the DOL. The Trump administration was apparently unhappy with slow progress at the agency, so Mulvaney was put in charge of oversight and has ultimate say on all decisions. Mulvaney took over his chief of staff position in January and took on this role some time since. What this means is that the White House is now more directly in charge of the DOL than ever.

FINSUM: The rumor of this is from Financial Advisor IQ (which is quite reputable), and it completely makes sense given that the DOL suddenly came out with a concrete timeline for the new rule’s release (December). This seems encouraging for those that opposed the initial rule.

(Washington)

The next phase of the US-China trade war is coming, and it looks like it may be even worse. At the beginning both sides focused on levying higher tariffs on more goods, then Trump took the step of limiting China’s access to semiconductors with his ban on Huawei. Now the next phase may be much more specific and potentially damaging for the US—China is likely to limit the US’ access to rare earths used to make all kinds of technology devices. Access to such rare earth elements is one of the biggest US weaknesses in tech and Beijing has the power to block access because the US imports 80% of its rare earths from China.

FINSUM: It is hard to tell how bad this could be. On the one hand, the total US imports of Chinese rare earths are only $160m, but on the other, if there is not another easy source then it could hamstring the businesses that use them.

(Detroit)

Will the robotaxi model come to dominate the car landscape or will the current ownership model persist? Will electric cars come to dominate? These are big questions for the US automotive industry. However, the answer is that it likely won’t matter because Detroit will win either way, especially GM. While Tesla would have no backup plan if electric cars didn’t become mainstream, GM could continue on with its main business line. Further, GM has a valuable self-driving card division, Cruise, which could do very well if robo taxis become the predominant model.

FINSUM: A couple things to note here. Firstly, GM is the cheapest stock in the S&P 500 on an earning basis, so it has a lot of upside. Secondly, we don’t think the robo taxi model will take over as the cost per mile to the end consumer is likely 2-7x the current cost, which means there would need to be massive changes to make it competitive.

(Washington)

The SEC’s Best Interest rule has been making its way through the regulatory machine without much attention lately. Everyone knows it is looming, but no one has been sure of the timing or what the newest iteration would look like. Well, it is becoming clearer now as the SEC has announced that it will vote on whether to adopt the new rule on June 5th. There are four different items the SEC commission will discuss. Some of them are remnants from the last version, but others like the “solely incidental” item, are not clear.

FINSUM: It looks like we will be able to see the new version of the rule within a few weeks. The SEC was facing a major uphill battle to make the BI rule amenable to all sides, and we shall soon see how much progress they made (and how it might fit with a forthcoming DOL rule 2.0).