(Washington)

The SEC’s Best Interest rule is still being digested by markets. It contains some potentially big changes, including the definition of fiduciary duty. The DOL is yet to release its new Fiduciary Rule, but it will reportedly work smoothly alongside the SEC’s rule. One of the questions that has arisen in this context is whether under the new rules it may be increasingly easy for fiduciaries to accept commissions. The idea of fiduciaries accepting commissions is generally a big no-no in the current paradigm, but top industry lawyers like Fred Reish see this loosening under the new rules. In particular, it is seeming as though broker-dealers could accept commissions when offering fiduciary advice, but the jury is still out on RIAs.

FINSUM: This is just one of the many new changes that are on the horizon. The combination of new rules will likely create grey areas, risks, and opportunities that are not yet apparent.

(New York)

Yes, the market is at or near all-time highs. Yes, the Fed is dovish, which is mildly bullish for markets (or very bullish if the economy stays in decent shape). However, equities are sending some strong warning signals too. In particular, two sectors which often act as bellwethers are showing that the market may be headed for a decline. Both small caps and transportation stocks have been struggling, a development usually associated with a market headed south. The sectors have declined at a rapid pace, and relative to the S&P 500 as a whole, are at their weakest point since 2009.

FINSUM: This is a signal similar in nature to the yield curve inversion. Is it material or just an aberration? Anyone’s guess.

(New York)

The dovishness from the Fed has been bullish for most of the debt market, with sovereign yields falling and corporate debt getting a boost. However, the riskiest corner of the market, triple C junk bonds, have been left out, with the group falling by 1.5% since May. Triple B bonds, by comparison, were up. The odd part about the losses is that signs of an interest rate cut are usually very bullish for junk bonds because they would mean lower interest burdens for the companies. That said, anxiety about the economy is high enough that such benefits were negated.

FINSUM: This whole situation makes sense in that the downside risk of a sinking economy is greater than the upside of lower interest rates for this subsector. Thus, the bonds are losing. In other parts of the credit spectrum, the risk-reward balance is different.

(Washington)

Bernie Sanders has just made his big pitch to America’s Millennial generation. The candidate has vowed to eliminate all student loan debt for both undergraduates and grad students, and make all future tuition free. To fund the $1.5 tn write-off, he is planning a new tax on stock, bond, and financial derivatives trades which he forecasts would bring in $2.4 tn over a decade. One of the things that differentiates this plan from others, like Warren’s, is that it will eliminate all debt, not just that of the lowest income borrowers.

FINSUM: This is an interesting plan from a strategic perspective because it not only appeals to the left and the young, but also the richest of the young because it would eliminate all debt regardless of income. This point has brought criticism from some Democrats.

(New York)

RIAs all over the country have been quite confused over the last couple of weeks. Ever since the SEC’s infamous change from “and” to “or” regarding fiduciary duty and a new ban on the use of the word for certain advisors, RIAs have been unsure about whether they are allowed to called themselves “fiduciaries”. On the one hand, the ban of the term’s use for certain groups made it seem like they could not use it, while on the other the technical definition of their duty had changed such that they no longer need to be fiduciaries to in order to comply with the SEC’s rules on defining an RIA. The SEC cleared up confusion late last week, however, saying that RIAs could continue to call themselves fiduciaries as the ban on use of the word does not apply to them, and nothing has changed to limit their use of the term.

FINSUM: While many RIAs are unhappy with the recent changes because of how they will water down the RIA brand, at least the SEC was very quick to clear up this confusion.

(New York)

One of the biggest banks in the country has just offered a very bullish view. BAML says the US will avoid a recession. The comments come from the bank’s CEO, Brian Moynihan, who believes that growth will slow, but then flatten out and not go into a recession. “Everything we see in our customer base is consistent with a slowdown to 2% and a flattening out from there”, he says.

FINSUM: We found these comments to be genuinely interesting because BAML has a view on the economy that few do. Not only are they the largest consumer bank, but also the biggest mortgage lender. That means they can watch the pace of deposit growth and borrowing in a very direct way, and thus can take the economy’s pulse.

(New York)

The trade war between the US and China has been pretty intense for some months, but many are wondering if it is headed for a cool down as the countries come to an agreement. The odds of such a development look bleak, according to Bloomberg, because each side’s alternative is looking better. Trump and Xi will meet at the G-20 summit this week to talk over their country’s trade issues, but given that both countries have realized they have good options outside of one another, it seems unlikely a deal will materialize.

FINSUM: We think a symbolic deal could still happen, but it is hard to envision an impactful and comprehensive deal being agreed any time soon.

(Washington)

RIAs need to ready themselves for an onslaught of broker marketing. Changes to the SEC’s rules on fiduciary advice means brokers can now say that they put client interests ahead of their own. This is leading industry experts to expect a marketing bonanza that is expected to help brokers capture market share back from RIAs, who are having their niche diluted by the changing rules. Accordingly, RIAs will need to recraft their narrative, changing marketing language in order to re-differentiate themselves from brokers.

FINSUM: The big loser in the new regulatory push has been RIAs, as they have essentially had their turf artificially eaten away from some shifts in language by the SEC. That said, they have been gaining market share for years, so are in a better position to begin with.

(New York)

Low volatility stocks aren’t behaving the way they are suppose to right now, but that is what makes them interesting. Stocks chosen because of their generally low volatility tend to perform poorly in up markets as their low beta means they underperform benchmarks. But the nature of this year’s rally has defied that idea. Stocks are up 18% this year, but there are still many worries about the economy, the combination of which has given a big boost to otherwise boring stocks. Even during the losses of May to June, low vol stocks barely lost anything even though the market plunged.

FINSUM: There are a number of low vol funds like USMV and SPLV which are good choices for this area. These stocks seem like they have found a sweet spot in the current market environment.

(New York)

For many years after the Crisis, the main theme around consumer debt was the idea that Americans were deleveraging. However, steadily, consumer debt has risen back to alarming levels. In the first quarter of this year, consumer debt hit $14 tn, surpassing the $13 tn of leverage pre-Crisis. Student debt has been a major area of credit expansion. Even when comparing debt to the population, the debt per person is a little higher than in 2008.

FINSUM: So obviously inflation needs to be accounted for here, but the picture is still worrying. It is yet another sign that we may be nearing the end of this run.