The Fed has begun its balance sheet reductions which those in the industry have labeled ‘quantitative tightening’. QT may be a leading cause of market volatility, as has historically been the case such as 2018. While the Fed poured trillions into the economy to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic they are pumping the breaks as a response to rising inflation. One way to gauge the impact of these measures is surveys of consumer confidence which are at their lowest levels since the 2008 financial crisis as reported by the University of Michigan survey. Some experts think this won’t have a strong impact on the rampant inflation because many of the causes are symptoms of Covid related supply shortages. As a result investors are looking at various volatility based solutions to wade the Fed’s storm.

Finsum: The yield curve has begun to flash warning signs of a recession, but maybe the Fed can still orchestrate a soft landing.

Vanguard is expanding their model portfolio selection for their ‘LifeStrategy’ brand on two fronts an MPS Classic and MPS Global. The MPS will have a total of five model portfolios which will be based in index funds giving a variety of risk preference choices to investors. The least risky models have a 20% equity exposure while escalating all the way to 100%. The MPS will definitely favor UK investments in both bonds and equities, but the global funds will be strictly a market cap weight. Vanguard is hoping the development of more model portfolios will deepen their relationship with financial advisors, by giving them better options to suit their end clients needs.  

It’s no secret bond funds have been on a track of suffering the last couple of months, but that might be turning around especially with mutual fund competitors. The counter cyclical effects of bonds and equities have broken down. In the month of May bond mutual fund outflows increased rapidly to over $90 billion, but bond ETFs saw an increase of $34 billion. Many mutual funds have been losing slowly over time to their ETF competitors. One of the complexing aspects of this relationship is that there has been a significant increase in active ETFs in the last couple of years. The Feds impact on interest rates have really shifted the traditional 60/40 portfolio because rising rates have contributed to the spiking volatility.

Finsum: The increase in active ETFs particularly for fixed income is a direct result of the macro alpha that is more prevalent than ever.

In the U.S. the predominant view on custom/direct indexing is that it serves as a vehicle to tax-loss harvest, but overseas could be shaping the future of this innovative new product. In the U.S. the tax code lends itself to these features, but Euro area tax laws vary so differently, custom indexing is being pitched more as an impact investing tool. This has real use cases specifically for targeting greenwashing. Greenwashers rig the system to benefit from favorable lending policies when they may have no business really being a green energy company. While some amount of impact investors are piggy backing on these good environmental scores to gain return, many new investors like millennials are interested in seeing their dollars actually impact environmental progress. An empowered group impact investors can eliminate ‘greenwashers’ from their custom index, which could lead to fundamental change in custom indexing.

Finsum: While the future of custom indexing products is vast ESG has some of the best potential because investors can call their bluff.

If you’ve had a bit more concern about the economy and your financial portfolio recently, then you’re far from alone. With ongoing market tumult and surging inflation, it’s reasonable to wonder what the future holds for your finances.

The SEC is planning to beef up its Reg BI enforcement for the rest of the year. The SEC put out a recent bulletin focused on Reg BI compliance and the role that brokers and advisors play in the process. The tone was about how brokers and advisors need to take more responsibility into their own hands regarding compliance. Additionally, more focus and guidance on rollover recommendations is in the pipe, said the SEC. More bulletins on the topic are expected soon.

FINSUM: Rollovers are obviously a major topic for advisors, so this will be closely watched and scrutinized by the wealth management community.

Emerging market debt could be in trouble according to JPMorgan. With a seemingly never-ending Russia-Ukraine crisis as well as rising borrowing costs low grade emerging market debt could be in trouble. A note said that almost half of the sample of the 52 countries are carrying high repayment risk. Generally speaking, spillover risk is high if Russia defaults and Ukraine has to res-structure. All of this is compounded by rising yields which makes repayment even more difficult.

Finsum: For those looking for solutions to rising volatility be careful chasing emerging market debt as a response.

Volatility is pervading markets and many advisors may have new clients or millennial investors who haven’t experienced this volatility before. A study from McKinsey showed that trust with an advisor is highly correlated with the amount of communication with advisors. Outsourcing financial news, posts, and blogs are a way to not burn clients out. Also, you can give different avenues to communication such as emails as well as social media. Themes can also help concentrate your message and lead to better takeaways. Managing expectations in uncertainty and making sure your clients feel their goals are being addressed are crucial.

Finsum: A little communication goes a long way and investors need to understand how their portfolio is adapting and performing in high volatility. 

Some advisors think of model portfolios as a tool for advisors that is rigid: a pre-selected allocation not to be tampered with. However, the model portfolio’s true advantage is that it brings an element of customization. This varies based on how an advisor implements the options, but overall because investors own the underlying asset, unlike a mutual fund they can add/drop for customization. This gives investors an edge for tax loss harvesting or tweaking to add a growth stock for example. To add to that models are relatively fee efficient particularly when it comes to their mutual fund counterparts while bringing most of the same options.

Finsum: A model portfolio can also be selected for its inherent traits as well and provide advisors with more flexibility than they are perceived to have.

Direct Indexing is being touted as the best way to generate tax alpha in a portfolio but is it all that it's cracked up to be? Experts say it has limits and diminishing marginal returns over time because as stocks are dropped, replacements with a lower cost basis will be more expensive to unload later on. Moreover one of the less talked about aspects is that as opportunities narrow as stock is unloaded there is less upside to growth opportunities as the portfolio is smaller. Investors should look to capitalize on direct indexing as they offload specific accounts for inheritance and retirement which is a relatively more minor portion of the portfolio.

Finsum: There may be a shift from custom indexing as a primary ESG focus if it fails to deliver tax alpha and is better suited to dropping greenwashers.