FINSUM

Volatility ETFs reached infamy in the 2018 Volmageddon episode, but these formerly destructive ETFs making a Lazzarath-like comeback. Both the SVIX and UVIX delivered record style gains amid inflows due to market gyrations UVIX closed 37% higher but was up 42% in mid-day trading. The wild up and downs came in response to the Fed meeting and a tanking S&P the following day. Advisors are steering investors toward both UVIX and SVIX because this is exactly where these products thrive. However, there is still a substantial risk as investors have suffered greatly in the past from these products and the ‘juice’ they are receiving could be detrimental on the downside.


Finsum: This is unprecedented volatility in the post-GFC, and it could continue until inflation is under control.

Markets are in turmoil which has investors looking for more secure options, but American bonds are a risky option with rising yields (falling prices), which means active international is in a good position. Over the last year, 82% of active bonds have outperformed, and while that doesn’t hold up in the long run the unique conditions put them in a good position. International bonds can offer less interest rate risk, already better yields, and comparable credit profiles. The added advantage of international active funds is investors can make hedges with currency trading which can allow investors to hedge or leverage for more potential gains.


Finsum: The Fed will continue to put pressure on both bonds and equities in the U.S., and investors need a backup plan.

Years of QE and ultra-low interest rates have caused income investors to migrate from fixed-income to dividend stocks, but things are shifting. The rising rates from the Fed have caused retail and institutional investors to really consider taxable fixed income as an income alternative. Investors are really interested in 4.5-5% investment-grade corporate debt with longer maturity. Investors believe we are reaching the bottom of the bond prices and short-term rates could be a little over 3% next year. Other advisors and institutional investors are skeptical that longer-term bonds like the ten-year treasury can prove to be appetizing in the next decade.  


Finsum: Things are precarious in the bond market still but medium-range corporate debt is delivering an attractive yield currently.

Altruist is launching a new direct indexing product at a low $2000 minimum coming at the end of May. Altruist is using fractional shares in order to be at the lower bound of direct indexing minimums. With direct indexing investors own the underlying asset, which comes with tax alpha but usually at a very high minimum footprint. The index will track a cap-weighted 500 stocks similar to the S&P. However, the penalty for this ultra-low minimum is that investors won’t have the ability to customize their final product, which greatly affects the value of the DI offers. They will allow value-based screens later thin the year according to management.


Finsum: Direct indexing without dropping for tax alpha is a bit of a puzzle because it’s hard to see the advantage over ETFs.

Markets are super volatile in response to a variety of macro Factors and a 50-basis point hike from the Fed last Wed. JPMorgan is touting its Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) as a solution for investors who tries to target the returns in the S&P 500 with less volatility. The covered call equity strategy is the way the fund tries to mitigate market volatility but those calls aren’t free. The fund is targeting  6%-9% yield scoring to the global head of ETF solutions at JPMorgan. The volatility has actually served the fund well allowing it to outpace its own expectations.


Finsum: Covered calls are by no means a new strategy but they are effective in limiting volatility. 

Model portfolios are a great tool to increase flexibility, growth, and optimization, and Principal is launching almost 40 new products in response to demand. Jill Brown, director of their U.S. Wealth Platform says they will give solutions that are easy to manage and deliver results to clients. These portfolios will leverage the full power of their fintech platform to help advisors hit their goals. The end products will include mutual funds and ETFs and will allow clients to personalize their portfolios with different risk-based suites. Capital appreciation will be the main goal of the three of the core suites, while total returns will be the main goal of the last suite.


Finsum: Third-party model portfolios give tailored solutions, and make customization easier than ever.

Goldman Sachs put out its views on the market’s volatility and how to handle it. The bank is not bullish on markets but thinks there are some very good stocks to help weather the storm. Unsurprisingly, Goldman says investors should buy stable stocks to help get through the turbulence, as such hum-drum stocks look like they have room to run. "Stable stocks also trade with undemanding valuations, supporting the likelihood that they will outperform if the macro environment grows increasingly challenging. Stocks with stable share prices and stable earnings growth generally trade with a valuation premium relative to more volatile peers and to the typical S&P 500 stock. However, relative valuations today are much lower than they have generally been during the last few years."


FINSUM: This is essentially a low-vol, value play, and that makes perfect sense right now. Very stable companies are likely to get through the economic upheaval better than their peers, so on a relative basis they should outperform.

الأربعاء, 04 أيار 2022 17:36

This is the Best Recession-Hedged Sector

Written by

Recession panic is rampant and over four-fifths of the US think the economy is going to turn into a recession in 2022 according to a CNBC poll. The rising inflation is the primary concern and a major factor give how well other area of the economy are performing. As a result, investors and hedge funds are turning to mid-cap stocks to prepare for the worst. Capri Holdings Limited is being held by over 40 hedge funds and carries an attractive P/E ratio of 14.23 for many investors. Next up is Valvoline Inc. which has seen its sales boom as it expanded into EV. Finally, nearly 50 hedge funds are holding luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc. and have almost $900 million in investments there.


FINSUM: Stable stocks could provide some recession cushion if things turn for the worst.

Model portfolios continue to grow in prominence among advisors. Every quarter, a higher percentage of advisors are adopting models and AUM has been growing considerably. Some evidence suggests a lot of the AUM growth is coming from some “power users” but the movement is still broad-based. On the back of that growth, Fidelity is expanding its suite of popular model portfolios. The company has launched Fidelity Target Allocation Tax-Aware Model Portfolios, which include nine equity and fixed income mixes, each versioned for I and Z share classes. The models are available through its managed account platform, Fidelity Managed Account Xchange (FMAX), and the Envestnet platform.


FINSUM: Models are making it easier and easier for advisors to manage money and save time, which boosts margins and enhances client service overall.

The IMF has warned investors that there are growing concerns about an emerging market debt crisis. There is anxiety that sluggish growth, higher interest rates, and surging inflation will hurt developing economies much more severely than developed ones. They will be disproportionately affected because highly indebted countries will have a dip in their investment and suffocate their currencies. These concerns aren’t new and emerged at the start of the pandemic, but this swell seems different. The Fed responded by pumping trillions into the economy in 2020 and they are doing the exact opposite now. Additionally, war and other risks are heightened now with Russia-Ukraine’s escalation.


Finsum: Investors searching for yield should be wary of emerging market bond funds given unprecedented risk levels.

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