FINSUM
Second Brexit Referendum in the Works
(London)
We don’t cover the Brexit saga very much, mostly because it doesn’t seem to have a great deal of relevance to the US. However, interesting news is out today: the UK’s Labour party is trying to get a second Brexit referendum going. The political details are complicated, but the general plan is to derail the government’s current Brexit plan, and then hold a general election that could work as a replacement for the first Brexit result. A Labour party’s spokesman says that it is a “sequenced, structured” strategy.
FINSUM: We have maintained throughout this saga that the UK should not leave the EU. It is still going to have to be heavily involved with the EU for economic and political reasons, and if it leaves it will simply go from a rule-maker to a rule-taker.
This Huge Loophole in the SEC Rule Helps Brokers
(Washington)
Brokers pay attention—a major loophole in the SEC’s best interest rule has just become apparent. One of the industry’s big complaints about the BI rule has been that it seeks to govern the use of the “advisor” title. Well, until now it seems that everyone had missed a key loophole in the rule. When the SEC drafted it, it allowed for dually-registered advisors/B-Ds to call themselves advisors even when they are carrying on brokerage business. 61% of registered reps work at dually-registered firms, meaning this aspect of the rule is mostly a moot point for the majority of advisors. According to Michael Kitces, famed advisor and wealth management commentator, “The rule literally doesn’t apply to most advisers”.
FINSUM: This is one of those bombshell realizations that seems to happen when a new rule is 1,000+ pages long—you miss things.
3 Great Cheap Dividend Stocks
(New York)
Retirees are looking for dividend stocks that can pay them steadily and over the long term. The higher the yield, the better, but generally one wants stable underlying companies that are not going to spend too high a percentage of cash. With those factors in mind, here are three names to consider: Verizon (4.3% yield), master limited partnership MPLX (6.85%), and mining giant Rio Tinto (~6%).
FINSUM: Verizon seems like a good bet to us, and we expect they might raise the dividend given that it is at an all time low relative to AT&T.
The US’ Big Weak Spot in Trade War with China
(Washington)
On the surface, the US seems to have a major upper hand in its trade war with China. Simply put, they export a lot more to the US than we do to China, which means that they have more to lose than we. However, looking closer at the imposition of the US’ attest tariffs, a significant weak spot emerges. That weak spot is that the US has become overly reliant on some very niche but important Chinese exports. Mot of these are things people have never heard of, like carbonate esters and fluorine salts, both used for electric car batteries. Nonetheless though, they are very important, and 297 such imports were recently exempted from the US tariffs.
FINSUM: Barite (for oil and gas exploration) and Ibuprofen, are other crucial imports. This is one of the pressure points where China could simply cutoff supply and the US would be in a difficult position.
5 Stocks for Rising Rates
(New York)
Rates and yields are rising as the Fed hikes and the outlook for the US economy improves. However, that will have a major effect on many stocks, which makes investors nervous. Accordingly, here are five stocks that should thrive in this rising rate period. JP Morgan believes investors should shift out of defensives and into cyclical stocks, like capital goods, financials, auto, and semiconductors. Five stocks to look at are: Applied Materials, BorgWarner, Caterpillar, KeyCorp, Parker-Hannifin.
FINSUM: This is a direct bet that we are not headed toward a bear market and recession. Given the market’s momentum lately, that could be a good change of tact.