(New York)

Something very interesting is happening on Wall Street. Just when US outperformance over global assets has been peaking, US analysts are urging clients to move their money into emerging markets. The catalyst for the recommendations is that the Fed’s tightening cycle is getting more intense, which means US equity values might be peaking before a downturn. That, coupled with currently weak emerging market valuations, means EMs seem to have better upside.

FINSUM: We see the argument, but must disagree. There are two reasons why. Firstly, emerging markets have tended to do badly in periods of rising US rates, and secondly, because EMs will feel the pinch of the trade war, which means their economies are likely to be hurt even more than the US’.

(Washington)

The market took a big hit yesterday following the Fed’s expected rate hike. However, it was not the rate hike itself that caused the problems, rather it was the Fed’s statement and its dot plot. The Fed removed the word “accommodative” (regarding its policy) from its statement, which combined with its more hawkish dot plot, got investors worried. The Fed funds rate is now higher than inflation for the first time in several years. Stock markets fell on the news, with the Dow dropping 0.4%.

FINSUM: The Fed getting more hawkish should make investors worried, as the more restrictive Fed policy becomes, the sooner (and more likely) a recession will arrive.

(New York)

Amazon has announced the launch of a new store in New York city. So far, most of Amazon’s brick and mortar aspirations have been unfulfilled, with only a handful of physical stores across the country. However, the company will launch a new store in New York that will feature the top-ranked and trending items from its website. The company is seeking to offer the items New Yorkers buy most directly in its store. Everything in the store will be a 4-star or higher item. The store is called 4-star and will launch in the SoHo neighborhood of Manhattan today.

FINSUM: We think this is an excellent theme for Amazon stores and could be a concept for the company to launch many more physical outlets across the country.

(Chicago)

McDonalds is taking one of its boldest menu steps in years. The company has announced that it will eliminate all artificial ingredients from its burgers. Ingredients such as calcium propionate and sodium benzoate will disappear from the Quarter Pounder and Big Mac as McDonalds tries to project a more healthy image. The move follows efforts earlier this year to use fresh beef and natural beta carotene in its burgers. Since the changes, many menu items have seen sales increases.

FINSUM: The healthy food movement has reached a significant mass and we think these changes were ultimately a must for the company.

(New York)

US stocks have simply blown away the world this year. The S&P 500 is up around 9% while global shares are down 6%. The outperformance has been driven by a supportive tax policy, great economic performance, and a pro-business attitude out of the White House. However, JP Morgan says that the outperformance of US stocks relative to the globe is set to stop. US stocks and global ones will move towards parity in coming quarters as the stimuli helping American shares wanes. The parity will not come from global stocks catching up as much as the US will stagnate or fall.

FINSUM: When we take everything into account right now, we are feeling increasingly positive about the the next year. We think Democrats winning the House would be favorable for shares as it would calm money managers’ worries about some of the GOPs more extreme positions (e.g. trade war). This could bring on a “goldilocks” scenario, where the economic and political conditions are just right for stocks to move strongly higher.