(New York)

The public and the media are flabbergasted at how the US stock market has seemed to defy everything we are seeing in “real life”. As of Friday, however, things started to make a little more sense because of good job numbers. Given the general disconnect between markets and the economy, it is important to take a step back and digest what markets really seem to be saying. In our view, the message is clear: not only is the economy going to bounce back, but a year from now, things are going to be better than they were before COVID.

FINSUM: The markets are making a very bold call and essentially pricing for perfection. However, it might not be that unrealistic. If the Fed and the government remain very accommodative, it is not outside the realm of possibility that by the end of June 2021, the economy is larger and potentially healthier than in Feb 2020.