(New York)

Goldman Sachs is sending a big warning to the market, but in its own way, of course. The bank’s strategy team has just published a new note telling investors to get “defensive” given the high uncertainty surrounding the market next year. The bank is uncertain about the direction of the stocks, but is leaning towards them either rising or gaining significantly, with a middle ground seeming less likely than usual. Institutional investors are worried that a recession will arrive in 2020, and historically speaking, the market usually falls by more than 10% in the year preceding such a downturn.

FINSUM: That last point raises the interesting question of whether the recession will arrive in 2019 and this is the 10%+ downturn preceding it. That would actually be better than Goldman’s take.