(New York)

Don’t be fooled by the “prophets of boom”, or the many Wall Street and economic leaders who are saying that the US economy is in great shape and will deliver strong growth for years to come. One well known strategist, David Rosenberg, who called the Great Recession before the Crisis, says that a recession is imminent and will arrive within the next 12 months. Rosenberg believes the January 26th high for the S&P 500 will be the peak of this bull market, and that it will ultimately be the Fed that sparks the recession. “Cycles die, and you know how they die? … Because the Fed puts a bullet in its forehead”.

FINSUM: There are a lot of late cycle indicators flashing in the US economy right now. A recession in the next year does seem plausible, if not overly likely.