(New York)

At the end of August, the IRS closed the door on the numerous high-tax states that were trying to classify their residents’ taxes as charitable gifts so as to make them deductible. That moved slammed the door of options shut for New York and New Jersey residents. However, the IRS didn’t close the door to other workarounds, and Connecticut apparently has a favorable model that specifically applies to pass-through entities. The workaround allows full deduction to the previous tax level for users through an income credit system on taxes paid.

FINSUM: One wonders if the IRS will just move on to shutting these programs down or whether this is a model that other states can build on.

(New York)

The whole market is generally afraid of rising rates. Both in 2015 and 2018, there were significant mini-meltdowns about the prospect of aggressive rate rises. One of the aspects that most worries investors is that higher rates will drive participants out of stocks and into higher-yielding bonds. However, while true in some respects, that narrative is far too simple. Higher rates are a symptom of a healthy and growing economy, which means the business fundamentals driving stocks are getting better, a factor which is likely far more important than incremental changes in rates.

FINSUM: We think there is some wisdom in these words, especially as they perfectly encapsulate what has happened with the market this year.

(New York)

Utilities, telecoms, consumer staples, and REITs, all sectors that should get hurt as rates rise, right? Think again. Dividend stocks are doing well, and telecoms, in particular, look like they have a lot of upside for investors. According to Oppenheimer, the price war in the sector is coming to an end, which means telecoms, which have trailed the market this year, could be in for a good run. Also notable is that the dividend yield spread between AT&T and Verizon is now at its highest ever, with the former at 6% and the latter at 4%.

FINSUM: Favorable bundling and higher per user revenue seem likely. Those drivers, combined with the fact that dividend stocks have a lot of momentum, could mean the sector might strongly outperform the market.

(Houston)

Many investors are simply unfazed by the current trade war erupting between the US and China (just look at share prices for evidence). However, even those who may be bullish on equities need to be worried for oil. While the increasing sanctions on Iran are supportive of prices, a trade war would likely be very bad. The reason why is that increasing tariffs would likely cause an economic downturn in emerging markets, which would then heavily sap oil demand, leading prices lower.

FINSUM: The oil and other commodity markets are demand-driven (and realistic) in a way that stocks aren’t. Watch them for where the economy is actually headed.

(New York)

One would think that with rates and yields rising, and set to continue doing so, dividend focused stock sectors might be suffering. Yet, the opposite is true in the last month, the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 have been the dividend stalwarts—utilities, consumer staples, and telecoms. The driver of the gains seems to be less about the returns provided by dividends, and more about the fact that these are defensive sectors that can protect against a downturn.

FINSUM: This development is a little confusing (but then again so is the whole market), as the defensive characteristics would seem to be somewhat offset by the downside of rising rates’ impact on these sectors.