(New York)

US stocks have simply blown away the world this year. The S&P 500 is up around 9% while global shares are down 6%. The outperformance has been driven by a supportive tax policy, great economic performance, and a pro-business attitude out of the White House. However, JP Morgan says that the outperformance of US stocks relative to the globe is set to stop. US stocks and global ones will move towards parity in coming quarters as the stimuli helping American shares wanes. The parity will not come from global stocks catching up as much as the US will stagnate or fall.

FINSUM: When we take everything into account right now, we are feeling increasingly positive about the the next year. We think Democrats winning the House would be favorable for shares as it would calm money managers’ worries about some of the GOPs more extreme positions (e.g. trade war). This could bring on a “goldilocks” scenario, where the economic and political conditions are just right for stocks to move strongly higher.

(New York)

One of the very interesting aspects—which is thoroughly underreported—is that despite the rise of ETFs, mutual funds have held a major portion of market share in the advisor allocation business. One of the trends which has emerged is that the growth of ETFs has not really cost mutual funds as much as one would expect. Rather, advisors have just started to use them in different ways. ETFs are seen as better for broad passive exposure, but when it comes to active management, mutual funds are seen as the superior choice. This helps explain why smart beta and other forms of active ETFs have been relatively unsuccessful.

FINSUM: It is not mutual funds that have suffered from the shift to ETFs, rather it has been variable annuities and individual stocks. This is a quite a positive development for the asset management industry, in our opinion.

(New York)

Consumer confidence in the United States is at an 18-year high. The last time Americans registered a feeling of confidence this high was in September 2000. However, that could be a big problem for the stock market. Consumer confidence can prove a counter-indicator. The highest ever reading for the measure was recorded in May 2000, just before the Dotcom crash. Small business confidence is even higher, running at a 45-year peak. According to one analyst, “[To] any market historian, that does not guarantee a low-risk market, or another big bull market leg on the horizon”.

FINSUM: These kind of ultra-high measures do worry us as we feel healthy gains come in periods of reasonable concern, not euphoria.

(San Francisco)

Two of Instagram’s founders have just left Facebook on acrimonious terms. The departures come six years after their company was bought by Facebook for about $1bn. They are leaving on poor terms because of recent changes Facebook has made which seem to prioritize Facebook’s growth at the expense of Instagram. Many analysts say the departures are a considerable negative for the stock, especially coming as part of a long string of troubles. There is also a serious threat that the two founders may come up with a competing product. Instagram accounted for 14% of Facebook’s revenue, or about $7.5 bn this year.

FINSUM: We don’t think a competing product is a worry, at least not yet. But image-wise, it does look like Facebook is a bit out of control.

(New York)

Treasury yields stayed pinned for most of this year. For many months it seemed like they were stuck in the ~2.85% range. This raised some hopes that we might have reached the crest in this hiking and rate rise cycle. However, Treasury yields have jumped considerably higher lately, and are now sitting close to their seven-year high of 3.11% from May. Yields have been moving higher as the trouble in emerging markets and Italy has waned, making investors turn to more pro-risk investments.

FINSUM: Yields are going to move in line with macroeconomic movements, especially right now. If the trade war worsens, or starts to show signs of hurting EM economies, expect a big retreat in yields.