(New York)

The market is currently in a rough patch. Even with yesterday’s big rally, the near-term prognosis for stocks could be quite bearish. That said, one product that would clearly benefit from a bear market is fixed index annuities. Because they are designed for principal protection (with limited upside), they tend to do very well during down markets, with clients showing ample demand. They are also not overly vulnerable to the Fed cutting rates, so taken altogether, they may be a perfect product for this market.

FINSUM: It seems like a good time for fixed index annuities, and we suspect clients will be showing good demand for the product given widespread anxiety.

(New York)

Charles Schwab has some advice for investors: don’t buy stocks. This is a sharp contrast to Bernstein Research (see our other story today). Schwab says the market just doesn’t have enough upside momentum yet to warrant buying the dip. The custodian says that once you get two solid up days in a row, then it is time to buy. Schwab argues that two good consecutive up days signals a shift in momentum that warrants buying, and given how down the market has been, there will still be plenty of margin to the upside.

FINSUM: We like Schwab’s call better than Bernstein’s, and given today’s performance, it also appears much more accurate.

(New York)

Markets are on a brutal run. At their peak, they were off 15% last week, and the worst news is that it is likely not over. According to Citigroup, the market is still positioned to fall considerably. Despite the big losses, futures are positioned as a net long, which means there is plenty of room for the market to fall. “There is not capitulation yet, not at all”, says Citigroup. According to the bank’s quantitative analysis team, stocks would have to fall 23% for the long bets to be cleared out. “The futures market has got less long [or positive on] equities but it’s still not short and that’s the problem”.

FINSUM: This makes pretty good sense. Markets were very overbought before the fall, and with Bernie in the lead, there is little to calm investors right now.

(Boston)

Variable annuities have been going through a difficult period recently. Fixed and fixed index annuities have been grabbing market share in the year since the DOL rule got canceled. However variable annuities just escaped an important new regulation. Massachusetts just implemented the first state fiduciary rule—which may become a template for liberal states all over the country. However, variable annuities have officially been categorized as insurance products, not securities, so do not fall under the purview of the best interest rule.

FINSUM: This is a major development for the variable annuities industry because there were a lot of fears the rule would consider them securities. It seems like the Massachusetts rule will become the standard template for state adoption all over the US, so this is a big victory.

(Washington)

The OECD sounded a big alarm this week about the threat of coronavirus to the economy. The group of rich countries announced that coronavirus may have a devastating effect on the economy, cutting growth in half. The organization said that growth this year could shrink to 1.5% from its previous forecast of 2.9% growth. It said the outbreak and actions taken in China would cut global growth by 0.5 percentage points alone, not even factoring in the rest of the world’s outbreak and response.

FINSUM: So long as the virus keeps spreading and negative headlines keep coming, more and more economy-shrinking actions will follow. Markets will react in kind.