(New York)

Usually, down markets are a very good tailwind for fixed annuities. With losses mounting, the prospect of full principal protection is usually very appealing. However, something odd is happening across the market—insurers are pulling many products from the shelves. Unlike the empty shelves in your local grocery store, it is not because they are selling out, it is because insurers desperately need to reprice the products given the huge moves in interest rates and market prices, and they do not have enough capacity to do this on the fly.

FINSUM: From a buying perspective, this market is perfect for fixed index annuities. Advisors may find some very attractive offers for clients.

(New York)

In what was one of the most emotional and scary markets-oriented interviews possibly ever, famed hedge fund manager Bill Ackman gave some very stern warnings to America yesterday. Ackman favors a complete shutdown of the US economy for 30 days, instead of a gradual rollout of measures. “America will end as we know it. I’m sorry to say so, unless we take this option”, he argues. He continued “Capitalism does not work in an 18-month shutdown, capitalism can work in a 30-day shutdown”. He further warned companies to stop buybacks because “hell is coming”.

FINSUM: Whatever you may feel about the health threat of the virus itself, the economic situation with the coronavirus has escalated so quickly that it is hard to know what forecasts are outlandish and which need to be taken seriously. What we do know is that there is no end in sight to the contain measures (and thus the economic damage), which means there is going to be a huge wave of unpaid bills by consumers and a resulting financial crunch for many companies.

(New York)

Goldman Sachs has put out some very concerning forecasts this morning. The bank thinks US GDP is going to shrink massively in Q2, down 5%. Goldman also thinks the S&P 500 won’t find a floor until it hits 2,000, another ~25% below current levels. The bank also believes 50% of Americans will contract the virus and that “peak virus” will occur within 8 weeks. Despite the gloomy predictions, the bank contends the markets will recover quickly in the second half of the year, with the S&P 500 rising back to 3,200.

FINSUM: This seems like a realistically bearish call on what is happening, with a very bullish medium-term outlook. Our gut instinct is that this seems a good prediction.

(New York)

We look like we are on the brink of a big downgrade in bonds that could spread chaos across the fixed income markets. Big rating agencies have not taken concrete steps yet, but investors have been assuming they will, as yields on BBB rated bonds have jumped, with $300 bn now above the 6% threshold. Many high-yielding companies, like airlines and cruise lines, have seen their yields skyrocket. According to Wells Fargo, “As the probability of a recession rises, so does the potential for downgrades and defaults, leaving us unwilling to wave the white flag for corporate credit”.

FINSUM: The downgrades are inevitable at this point, but at least the market has already been adjusting, so it will be less chaotic when it happens.

(Washington)

The Fed sent a big message yesterday (or at least it tried to). The US central bank made a surprise Sunday move on interest rates, slashing them to near zero and announcing more asset purchases. The cut amounted to a full percentage point in addition to $700 bn of asset purchases and various liquidity boosting measures. Despite the efforts, markets have not reacted well to the news. Two circuit breakers have been hit already since the announcement and the Dow was down as much as 10% in early trading today.

FINSUM: The Fed is taking the right steps, but doing them in the wrong way. Better guidance and signaling would have been very welcomed.