Displaying items by tag: bull

Oil’s slight dip in the last couple of weeks as compared to the last month has puzzled traders because the war in Ukraine is not stalling and global supply gluts still seem elevated. However, this hasn’t stopped Berkshire Hathaway which has bought up even more of Occidental Petroleum. This week alone they acquired $500 million in shares of OXY, this brings their total stake up to a staggering $8.5 billion. Energy performed amazingly in 2021 and commodities continued to boom into 2022, and oil prices were already moving high well before the war which has only limited supply and boosted demand. OXY has benefited from having an impressive earnings season allowing them to outpace many of their peers.

Finsum: Bidens Oil Tax holiday will be an interesting experiment at the pump, we could see monthly demand over-react to the news.

The average investor is scared of market conditions and as a result we have seen various measures of sentiment plummet, but now could be the exact moment to hit the dip and ride a bull wave. The first reason is the Bull/Bear ratio which was a 1.12 which below two is buy territory and approaching or below one is a strong buy. The other reason is comically low sentiment which usually proceeds a booming period. While inflation fears are rampant, core inflation took a strong movement in the right direction which means that the Fed won’t have to tighten as much. Finally, the pandemic is starting to show sings of trickling out, and while new variants are spreading each subsequent new variant has had a smaller impact and been less lived. This could be a huge win for supply chains which could trickle into lower inflation and much higher growth.

Finsum: There are early signs of optimism for stocks and bonds; the time to strike could be very soon.

(San Francisco)

It isn’t just Apple that is at risk from coronavirus. A lot of other tech companies are too, and it makes perfect sense. Apple is far from the only major US tech company that sources many of its parts from China and relies on the country for a significant portion of revenue. The other major companies which are highly exposed are Tesla (20% of its supply and demand comes from China), Dell, HP, and Corning (which looks especially vulnerable).

FINSUM: Corning has a major glass factory in Wuhan itself and relies on China for 25% of its revenue.

(Los Angeles)

One prominent short seller has come out warning investors about Tesla, 2020’s rocket ship stock. Citron Research, a legendary short-seller, says that investors should dump Tesla’s stock, as the gains have all been “computer-generated”. The stock closed up 14% again yesterday. Citron says “This is obviously a computer-generated rally, it’s not a reflection on the company, or on valuation. It’s just a trade … Yes, I'm shorting it…whoever bought it at these prices has to flush it out, and when it flushes, it’s going to flush hard.” The firm also referred to Tesla’s stock as a casino.

FINSUM: Tesla is up 112% in 2020. This is a case study in irrational exuberance, or what might now be called “momentum”.

(New York)

If that headline seems like a head scratcher, it is meant to be. Barron’s ran a curious article today which argues that weak forecasts for earnings might actually be a good catalyst for higher stock prices. That seems to defy logic, but would be a continuation of a trend that has been in place for a few years. When companies broadcast weak earnings to come, it tends to make investors nervous, leading to oversold conditions. As you might expect, oversold markets tend to lead to bull runs.

FINSUM: This is a tenuous relationship, but when that has been apparent for the last few years. Stocks do like to climb a wall of worry, and this would be a good wall.