Gold futures spiked sharply above spot prices after reports suggested the U.S. would impose unexpected tariffs on 1 kg and 100 oz bars, a major disruption for Switzerland, the global refining hub. 

These bar sizes are central to U.S. trading, and the sudden policy shift triggered short-covering and a widening of the exchange-for-physical (EFP) spread, echoing past dislocations during COVID and earlier tariff fears. The turmoil has raised doubts about the reliability of New York futures markets for price discovery, as policy volatility increasingly distorts trading signals. 

Meanwhile, the December gold contract hit a record $3,534, but analysts caution that spot prices, not futures, reflect gold’s real value. A similar drama unfolded in copper markets, where a tariff scare caused prices to soar—only to collapse when Trump reversed course. 

Finssum: Heavy trader losses, bloated U.S. inventories, and mounting questions about the integrity of U.S. commodity pricing amid tariff uncertainty are the result.