(Washington)

Stocks may do well after the midterm elections, but Barron’s is arguing that rise will be preceded by a fall in share pricing leading into the elections. The contention is based on two arguments which rely on historical trends for the market. One is that markets do well in the third year of a presidential cycle, and the other is that stocks tend to do poorly in the summer. All of that points to a market that is likely to start rallying in the Autumn, specifically November 1st, says Barron’s.

FINSUM: While Barron’s does point it out, it is very worthwhile to bear in mind that these types of calls are only as good as the actual catalysts one sees that could really drive them. In this case, the uncertainty over how the Republican party will fair in the midterms may be a key factor.

(New York)

Walmart stockholders beware, the company might be in for a big scandal. A whistleblower internal to the company has come out claiming that Walmart is using misleading ecommerce results to make investors believe it is catching up to Amazon. A former director of business development says he was fired after raising concerns at the company about its “overly aggressive push to show meteoric growth in its e-commerce business by any means possible -- even, illegitimate ones.” “Wal-Mart sacrificed and betrayed its founder’s key principles of integrity and honesty, pushing those core values aside in its rush to win the e-commerce war at all costs”, said the whistleblower.

FINSUM: So reading these claims, we do not see any evidence of the claimant saying Walmart actually falsified financial results, only that it used aggressive tactics (such as underpaying vendors), so the damage may not be that bad.

(New York)

Despite a very poor three months, there have been increasing amounts of articles arguing that Bitcoin may be a tipping point where it moves higher. However, Bloomberg has published a piece saying it is at a so-called death cross. The cryptocurrency’s 50-day moving average has dropped to its nearest point to its 200-day moving average in nine months, a move which spells doom for technical analysts. If it crosses below the 200-day threshold, it would signal the “death cross”.

FINSUM: While this does seem significant, we would argue that technical analysis is not as relevant in Bitcoin. The reason why being that the fundamentals of the market (e.g. a sound regulatory environment) are unstable, and there is little trading history from which to weigh technical indicators.

(New York)

Gun stocks may be in for a deep fall. For many years gunmakers have been protected by a legal precedent which keeps them from being held liable in cases of gun violence. However, a novel new argument in a court case may bring that crashing down. Families of the victims in the Sandy Hook shooting in 2012 have brought a case against Remington which argues that the gunmaker should be held liable because it made the choice to distribute its rifles to a dealer who illegally sold weapons. Essentially, the case holds Remington liable for its distribution channels.

FINSUM: If this argument holds it would defeat the 2005 precedent that has protected gunmakers and open the door to unknown levels of legal action.

(New York)

Investors beware of yields. That is the message from one of Wall Street’s most respected names in fixed income. In particular, Jeffrey Gundlach is warning that if ten-year Treasury yields get to over 3% then it will spell doom for stocks. Yields are currently at 2.84%, down from a peak on February 21st of 2.95%. “My idea that the S&P would go down on the year would become an extraordinarily strong conviction as the 10-year starts to make an accelerated move above 3 percent”, says Gundlach.

FINSUM: So the argument here seems to be based on the idea that stocks would become less attractive as investors could earn more from bonds given rising yields. That makes some sense given the increasing size of the retirement population.