(New York)

There is a new big asset class getting very popular on Wall Street. You may think it is some new esoteric structured credit or volatility product. But guess what, it is just about the oldest product in the world—business lending, or “direct-lending” as it is being called. It has been increasingly apparent on the fringes that big Wall Street players, like Goldman Sachs, have recently taken an interest in direct lending. Now, the whole Street is getting in on the action. Major private shops like KKR and others have started direct lending funds, and the area has returned handsomely, up over 20% this year. The idea of the funds is to lend to businesses and whose credit excludes them from the usual channels.

FINSUM: These funds seem likely to do well until a recession or period of deleveraging occurs, at which time they are likely to see high levels of defaults.

(New York)

There have been a lot articles and discussion lately about the new cap on so-called SALT deductions (state and local taxes). Much of this conversation has been centered around wealthy New Yorkers and others in the northeast considering moving their primary residences to low-tax states like Florida. Well, if anecdotal evidence is worth anything, the conversation is just that, talk. The reason why? New York’s onerous tax collection department dives into credit card records, confirms doctor’s appointments, and does door to door checks to make sure you have really uprooted your life and left the state. Evidently, after speaking with the financial advisors and lawyers, many residents have decided to forget about moving, saying it is just too big a disruption.

FINSUM: This makes sense given how rigorous the tax inspectors are. Further, New York is probably going to find a way around this lack of SALT very soon, so it is not worth uprooting.

(Rio de Janeiro)

Emerging markets have been in a really tough patch lately and generally entered a bear market recently. Their losses have been urged on by higher rates and a stronger Dollar. However, the situation may be about to turn around. The argument is from UBS Asset Management, who says that EMs have de-risked from five years ago during the Taper Tantrum, and that they are in a much stronger financial position now. In particular, whereas investors were worried about EM risk during the Taper Tantrum, now the losses have just been down to a rising Dollar, which does not signal any fundamental weakness.

FINSUM: Our worry with this argument is the lack of a catalyst. While all of what UBS argues may be true, what will cause the market to comprehensively reverse?

(New York)

One of the weakest sectors over the last year has been asset management. If you take a close look at some top asset managers, including Invesco, BlackRock, etc, you will see that many are down 20% or more. The growth of passives, pressure on fees, and weak inflows have all combined to bring down the managers. According to Barron’s they look like big bargains. BlackRock, T.Rowe, Franklin Resources, and Legg Mason look like the good bets. There are some great payers in the group too, with Invesco and BlackRock both sporting yields over 4% and AllianceBernstein paying a whopping 8.6%.

FINSUM: Yes, the industry’s traditional model is under fire, but those with very good scale will win out. Therefore, we do think the very top managers are a good buy, especially at these valuations/yields.

(Washington)

It looks like the EU is going to pullout all the stops to try to avoid a trade war with the US. EU commissioner head Juncker is going to meet in Washington this week with President Trump to offer some new avenues for discussion as a way to avoid a broad tariff package. Trump is threatening a $50 bn tariff package on the EU, which he says has taken advantage of the US in trade. Europe is particularly worried for their car exports to the US, which are very vulnerable to Trump’s potential tariffs.

FINSUM: We have a hard time imagining Juncker is going to say anything to dissuade Trump, but maybe the EU has something sweet to offer.