Displaying items by tag: recession

U.S. crude oil futures dropped to around $73 per barrel amid widespread concerns of a looming recession. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, now up less than 2% for the year, and Brent crude, slightly down for 2024, saw declines despite earlier gains fueled by Middle East tensions and anticipated market tightening. WTI reached six-month lows earlier in the session. 

The energy prices for the day showed WTI at $72.84 per barrel and Brent at $76.30 per barrel. The downturn followed disappointing U.S. job growth and continued manufacturing sector contraction. 

Adding to the market's unease, China's weaker imports and refinery utilization rates have also impacted sentiment. OPEC+ might reconsider increasing production in October, with potential cuts depending on market conditions. Geopolitical risks persist, notably with rising tensions between Israel and Iran.

Finsum: Weak demand is very common leading into recessions, but with rate cuts around the corner now might be the time to buy energy stocks.

Bonds have weakened to start the year, given increasing uncertainty about the direction of the economy and monetary policy. Weitz Investment Management notes that credit spreads have tightened even while long-term yields move higher. Thus, the firm believes there is greater potential for losses if inflation meaningfully picks up from current levels or credit spreads widen.

It also believes that massive fiscal deficits are an indication that the inflation issue is not going to disappear anytime soon. It notes that over the last 4 years, deficits have averaged 9% of GDP, which was only seen before during wars. Currently, the national debt is increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days. And this is a major reason why the Fed’s aggressive hikes have not resulted in a recession. It also means that Treasury issuance will continue to be elevated as debt will need to be refinanced at higher rates. 

Amid this backdrop, the firm notes that there is considerable complacency among investors. It notes that credit spreads declined across the board in Q1 and are now at 10-year lows. It believes this is likely a result of strong demand for bonds as new issues have been oversubscribed and there has been a flattening of yields in the credit curve. 

To combat these risks, Weitz recommends looking for opportunities in fixed income across the spectrum and beyond the benchmarks. It recommends diversified and broad exposure, including fixed and floating-rate securities. Ultimately, investors need to be nimble and prepare for various scenarios, such as the economy continuing to be robust, inflation resuming its ascent, or the economy stumbling into a recession.

Finsum: Weitz Investment Management sees considerable complacency within fixed income while also noting some risks. It recommends investors seek broad and diversified exposure to the asset class and pursue a more active and nimble approach. 

Oil prices have continued to defy Wall Street analysts. Last year, the consensus view was that prices would weaken as the US economy slipped into a recession, with the rest of the world facing a sharper contraction in economic growth. While growth did slow, the US economy continued to expand, and global oil demand increased more than expected. In Q1, the IEA upped its forecast for US oil demand by 110,000 barrels per day due to stronger than expected economic data. 

Additionally, despite predictions from EV boosters, there has been no material impact on oil demand from increased adoption. Similarly, China’s economy has been mired in a slump, yet Chinese oil demand also defied expectations and increased more than expected. In fact, a major lesson of the post-pandemic period is the inelasticity of oil demand. 

On the supply side, US production also surpassed forecasts and made up for any production cuts from OPEC. A major factor is increasing well productivity due to newer drilling techniques. 

Looking ahead, many were skeptical that OPEC+ would remain disciplined, given individual countries’ incentives to increase revenues by boosting production. So far, the cartel has managed to successfully reduce production, which is contributing to the current tight market and a major factor in oil’s upward move YTD. 

Finsum: Last year, many analysts got it wrong when it came to oil. Overall, they were too bearish on the economy and overestimated how much a weak economy would impact oil demand. 

Natixis Investment Managers issued its outlook for 2024. It notes that cash levels are higher than normal due to volatility and uncertainty. However, it does believe that some of this cash will be put to work in model portfolios. 

Overall, it sees uncertainty continuing given a tense geopolitical situation in multiple parts of the world, an upcoming presidential election, and the risk that the economy stumbles into a recession. But these conditions are positive for fixed income given attractive yields, falling inflation, a more accommodative Federal Reserve, and equity valuations which are once again getting expensive. 

According to Marina Gross, the head of Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, model portfolios are one of the biggest trends in wealth management. She notes that “Firms are looking to provide a more consistent investment experience for clients in an increasingly complex market, advisors are looking to grow their practices and know clients want more than an allocation plan, and clients are looking for broader more comprehensive relationships with their advisors. Models offer a solution that fits the bill for each in 2024 and beyond.” 

Model portfolios are particularly suited for the current environment as they help manage risk and increase the chance that clients will stick to their financial plan through market turbulence. For advisors, it leads to more confident clients while freeing up time for revenue-generating and business-building efforts.  

Finsum: Natixis is forecasting that model portfolios will continue to gain traction in 2024. Given high levels of uncertainty, model portfolios are particularly useful for advisors and clients. . 

PIMCO sees a changed environment in 2024 as the Fed will pivot to rate cuts. However, it sees the impact of prior rate hikes still impacting economies and leading to stagnation or a mild contraction. 

Financial markets will be focusing on the timing and pace of rate cuts. Based on history, central banks don’t ease in anticipation of economic weakness. Instead, they tend to cut only after recessionary conditions materialize and tend to cut more than expected by the market. 

PIMCO agrees with Chair Powell that inflation and growth risks are now more ‘symmetrical’. However, it believes the market is underpricing recession risk especially given that some assets are already priced for a soft landing given the strong rally in many assets over the past few months. 

It also believes that fixed income is particularly appropriate for this environment given that yields are still close to multi-decade highs. It also offers protection and upside in the event of economic conditions deteriorating. Within the asset class, it favors mortgage-backed securities and believes investors should stick to medium-duration bonds as yields are attractive while interest rate risk is reduced. On a longer-term basis, PIMCO sees neutral policy rates to reach similar levels to before the pandemic which is also supportive of the category. 

Finsum: PIMCO sees financial conditions easing in 2024 as the Fed cuts rates, but economic conditions will deteriorate given the delayed impact of tight monetary policy.