Wealth Management
In an article for MarketWatch, Jamie Chisholm discusses whether stocks can still rally despite the recent surge in bond yields following a spate of positive economic data. Fixed income enjoyed strong performance for most of the first-half of the year, however the asset class gave up a portion of these gains in June as it became clear that the Fed was not done hiking rates given resilience in inflation data and the jobs market.
However, Chisholm warns that as yields get above these levels, they have a tendency to become a headwind for equities. He cites Mark Newton, the chief technical strategist at Fundstrat, who believes that bonds are due for a bout of strength. He believes this pullback in yields will fuel the next leg higher in equities.
Newton believes that yields will find resistance at these levels and sees more risk of a breakdown in yields rather than a sustained breakout to new highs. He also believes the market is going in the wrong direction in terms of over-rating the Fed’s hawkishness in response to recent data. As evidence, he cites trader positioning which shows that the bulk of traders are betting on more rate hikes into year-end.
Finsum: Bond yields are now trading at their 52-week highs following a series of better than expected economic data. Can equities still rally with yields at these levels?
In an article for InvestmentWeek, Jeffrey A. Johnson, the head of Fixed Income at Vanguard, discusses why there is opportunity for investors in active fixed income funds. He sees attractive valuations coupled with elevated yields. However, he warns that more volatility is likely given that central banks aren’t yet finished raising rates.
According to Johnson, periods of volatility are when active fixed income really shines. Further, he believes investors can increase their odds of success with active investing by selecting funds with qualified and capable management teams in addition to low costs.
Over the long-term, most active funds fail to beat their benchmarks. The story isn’t so simple in fixed income given that active managers can take advantage of different durations and credit quality that aren’t available to passive funds.
Given the challenges of active management, Vanguard recommends a blend of active and passive funds. Although, it favors active management during periods of volatility and uncertainty. In contrast, passive funds offer predictability and lower costs, while active funds offer a higher degree of risk and reward.
Finsum: According to Vanguard, the outlook for active fixed income funds is improving. The asset class tends to outperform during periods of volatility and economic and monetary uncertainty.
In a piece for the ETF Database, Todd Rosenbluth examines whether the strong performance of fixed income ETFs will continue in the second-half of the year. In total, the asset class had $200 billion of inflows which represented 49% of all inflows despite fixed income ETFs only accounting for 19% of total assets.
Given the uncertainty around the economy and monetary policy, it shows that investors are looking to take advantage of higher yields as well as a structural shift towards the asset class. Both stocks and bonds have posted positive returns following a down year in 2022.
This is despite a headwind from the Fed’s rate hikes which look likely to continue into year-end following a recent spate of positive economic data. Due to this, yields on Treasuries have exceeded their March highs. So far, the strength in the bond market has been contained to the long-end especially following the recent inverting of the curve following a string of better than expected employment data.
Within the asset class, active fixed income ETFs saw $8 billion of inflows. Active fixed income ETFs have a better track record of outperforming their benchmark due to the ability to buy durations and assets that are unavailable to passive fixed income funds. While only 26% of active equity funds outperformed the S&P 500, 48% of active fixed income funds outperformed their benchmark in 2022.
Finsum: Fixed income ETFs saw a surge of inflows in the first-half of the year due to attractive yields. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in the second-half of the year given the economy and Fed.
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In a piece for AdvisorHub, Karmen Alexander covers the latest developments in First Republic’s wealth management unit following the regional bank’s bankruptcy. The majority of the beleaguered bank’s assets were acquired by JPMorgan, but many of its financial advisors are choosing to move to new firms.
Overall, the general trend seems to be that the advisors with the most assets are moving to an independent model. One exception is Mark Alibrandi and Stephen Alibrandi who are joining UBS’ Private WEalth Management unit, taking an estimated $1.5 billion in assets and a total of $5.1 million in annual production. Both Alibrandis had been with First Republic for over a decade and were ranked #8 by Forbers for best wealth advisors in Massachusetts.
This move came on the heels of Shannon McAllister also exiting First Republic for UBS with around $1.3 million in assets earlier in June. While UBS is recruiting brokers in the New England area away from First Republic, NewEdge Wealth, a hybrid brokerage and advisory firm, was successful in recruiting John Froley in California. Froley was ranked as the #62 advisor in California by Forbes and has $309 million in assets under management.
Finsum: First Republic was acquired by JPMorgan. Yet, many of the companies’ wealth advisors are leaving the bank for greener pastures.
In Bloomberg, Garfield Reynolds covers the weakness in bond markets following a flurry of better than expected economic news which is making clear that a recession is not imminent. Between March and June, bonds were in the midst of a spectacular rally due to inflation slowing, increasing signs that a recession was likely in the second-half of the year, and financial stress caused by the failure of regional banks.
Yet, these gains have been quickly wiped away in the past month amid strength in the labor market and consumption. Also, it’s now apparent that the Fed’s hiking cycle is not over. Consequently, a global index of government bond yields have hit their highest level since September 2008 which precipitated the Great Recession. Adding to bond woes is the consensus expectation that Treasury yields had peaked.
It’s also impressive that despite weakness in regional banks, there has been no contagion effect in terms of tighter credit which could potentially add to recessionary impulses. However, some market participants are wary that further weakness in bonds could result in strains to the banking system and result in a ‘deposit flight’ to Treasuries.
Finsum: Fixed income has been in a brutal bear market over the past month as the market’s consensus about a bond bull market, slowing economy, and the Fed being finished in terms of rate hikes have proven to be false.
In an article for Morningstar, Sheryl Rowling discusses a conundrum facing many financial advisors - how to grow their practices without compromising on providing personalized attention to clients. After all, client service is the foundation for any successful practice and sacrificing this in the pursuit of growth can lead to higher rates of turnover and dissatisfied clients.
One recommendation is to set up systems to ensure constant communication with clients. For instance, many advisors commit to responding to any client inquiries within 24 hours with the type of communication customized to client preference. Additionally, advisors can create a quarterly piece of content like an email newsletter or a letter, providing general updates on a client’s financial plan and keep them updated about financial markets and other important information.
Another recommendation is to invest in creating an effective online presence. While this requires an upfront investment in terms of time and money, it will create longer-term efficiency in terms of marketing and client recruitment. Thus, growth can be achieved without compromising on service.
Hiring an assistant or operations person who either specializes in back office tasks, marketing, or customer service can also be helpful and lead to additional time savings. Many advisors continue to wear many hats and don’t spend enough time on the tasks that move the needle for their firm. By hiring for specialized roles, advisors will have more time to focus on the key tasks that drive success whether it's more personal time with clients, portfolio management, or generating leads.
Finsum: Every financial advisor faces a similar challenge. They want to grow their practice but not compromise on client service which is integral to long-term success.