Wealth Management
For Advisors’ Edge, Maddie Johnson discusses why fixed income ETFs have experienced strong growth in recent years, and why it should continue in the coming years. ETFs have been around for more than 30 years but have become ubiquitous in the last couple of decades.
Interestingly, the trend began with passive equity ETFs taking market share away from equity mutual funds due to offering lower costs and better returns over longer time periods. In the fixed income world, change was much slower but now we are starting to see fixed income ETFs outpace equity ETFs in terms of inflows. A major factor is that there are more options when it comes to actively managed ETFs. Additionally, investors seem to be favoring fixed income given an uncertain market environment and attractive yields.
In the first half of the year, fixed income ETFs had inflows of $160.1 billion which dwarfed the $52.8 billion of inflows in fixed income ETFs. A major recipient of inflows have been short-duration bond funds which offer yield close to 5% in many cases.
If the Fed does indicate that it’s ready to hit the ‘pause’ button rate hikes or actually start cutting then look for long-duration funds to start outperforming as investors look to lock in these higher levels of yield.
Finsum: Fixed income ETFs have seen the majority of inflows in 2023 due to an uncertain market environment and high levels of yield.
In a piece for AdvisorHub, advisor transition company - 3xEquity - shared some lessons for advisors from Twitter’s rebrand. While Twitter has been on a strange journey over the last few years and is now known as X, there are some important takeaways for advisors who are starting with a new firm.
For one, the most important task is to introduce the new brand to existing clients and stakeholders. With this, it’s important to be consistent with the new branding to ensure there is no confusion among your clients.
For advisors who are considering moving to a new firm, they should ensure that the new firm’s transition team is sufficient enough to handle the workload in order to ease the move. Additionally, an advisors’ time should be spent communicating with clients rather than handling paperwork or back office functions.
Re-branding is also another consideration for advisors who are selling their firm, especially as many advisors now are choosing a hybrid phased selling model. With this model, advisors may work as employees and are slowly phased out of the new firm to maximize client retention. This can also lead to confusion among clients so it requires constant communication about the transition process.
Finsum: The transition process can be difficult for advisors who are moving to a new firm. Here are some lessons from Twitter’s re-branding for advisors on what to do and what not to do.
Active fixed income has underperformed for the last 4 quarters due to the sharp increase in rates and tightening of spreads. However, the asset class could be poised to outperform as the Fed pauses and offers the best way for investors to take advantage of higher yields according to Sage Advisors Chief Investment Officer Rob Williams.
Williams sees the Fed’s current rate path as being data dependent. This period could last for several quarters and offers specific advantages for active fixed income given its ability to tap a wider variety of duration, sectors, and risk to generate alpha.
Eventually, Williams sees the yield curve steepening as the Fed inevitably shifts from ‘pausing’ to cutting. This process is likely to be volatile given the underlying resilience of the economy and labor market, and active fixed income tends to outperform in volatile markets.
Active managers also have the ability to identify value in the fixed income space to improve return and risk factors. Due to volatility compressing in 2023, spreads have also tightened as well. This means that security selection has a more meaningful impact on returns and risk.
Finsum: Active fixed income offers specific advantages to investors that are especially relevant if the Fed is pausing rate hikes and remaining ‘data-dependent’.
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In Marketwatch, Christine Idzelis discusses with Blackrock’s Rick Rieder his current thinking about fixed income given the recent selloff in Treasurie. Rieder is the Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income for Blackrock and also the manager of the Blackrock Flexible Income ETF, its recent active fixed income ETF launch. The fund offers a 7% yield and invests in a mix of government debt, corporate credit, and securitized assets.
Since inception in late May, the ETF has generated a 1.2% total return. In contrast, popular bond ETFs like the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF and Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF are down about 2% over the same time period. He attributes his outperformance to keeping “interest-rate exposure low” with a duration of 2 years.
The majority of weakness in the fixed income market in recent weeks has been concentrated in long-duration assets. He believes that active fixed income ETFs offer exposure to areas like mortgage-backed securities and high-yield bonds. Rieder also believes that active fixed income is best suited to navigate the current market environment which offers very attractive yields but performance is likely to be bifurcated as long as rates continue to rise.
Finsum: Rick Rieder, the CIO of Blackrock Fixed Income and portfolio manager of its active fixed income ETF, shares his thoughts on the current macro environment and benefits of active fixed income.
As the summer ends and fall rolls around, it’s natural to expect a surge in market volatility. This is even more relevant this year given that stocks have enjoyed a period of low volatility and gently rising prices throughout most of the summer despite a variety of challenges such as rising rates, stubborn inflation, and pockets of weakness in the economy.
Further, history shows that periods of sharp increase in rates can often trigger stress in parts of the financial system that can have knock-on effects in the real economy. The most recent example is the crisis in regional banks due to an inverted yield curve which could have negative effects on the flow of credit in the economy.
For ETFTrends, Ben Hernandez discusses how direct indexing benefits from these surges in volatility. Direct indexing differs from traditional investing in funds as it allows investors to re-create an index in their portfolio.
This allows tax losses to be harvested as losing positions can be sold with the proceeds re-invested into stocks with similar factor scores. Then, these losses can be used to offset gains in other parts of the portfolio, leading to a lower tax bill.
Finsum: Direct indexing has many benefits but the most impactful in terms of alpha is its ability to generate tax savings for clients during volatile markets.
Entering 2023, many were expecting a big year for gold due to high inflation, rising recession risk, and considerable amounts of geopolitical turmoil. Yet, this hasn’t come to fruition. Gold prices enjoyed a decent rally in the first-half of the year but has given back the majority of these gains in recent weeks.
The most likely culprit is that real interest rates continue to rise as inflation moderates, but the Federal Reserve continues to hike rates. When real rates are rising, gold becomes less attractive as an investment because it offers no return to inventors. However when real rates are negative and/or falling, gold becomes more attractive to own. Thus, the best combination for gold prices would be a weak economy coupled with high inflation. As long as the economy continues to defy skeptics, a breakout for gold prices is unlikely.
The metal hit an all-time high of $2,078 in March 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine when geopolitical tensions culminated. It re-tested these levels in March of this year following the crisis in regional banks when many thought the Fed would have to intervene and possibly cut rates to support the banking system. Since then, prices have declined by about 6%.
Finsum: Gold prices have stagnated following strong performance in the first-half of the year. Currently, prices are likely going to move lower as long as Treasury yields keep chugging higher.