Treasury Secretary Mnuchin thinks $310 bn towards a new Paycheck Protection Program will be enough to satisfy remaining demand. We at COVID Loan Tracker think he is sorely mistaken.

The government and the SBA in particular have continually mentioned a figure of around 1 million applications that were in-process but stranded by the first round of the program running out of money. Based on that calculation, the logic for the size of the new program is very simple: if $349 bn funded 1.7 million applications in the first round, then surely $310 bn will fund the remaining 1 million applications that got stranded.

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Unfortunately, this assumption grossly underestimates the real number of stranded applications because it does not account for “shadow applications”. Many small business owners never had their applications formally submitted to the SBA for an E-Tran number because they were still collecting/correcting/submitting paperwork that was requested by their lenders. Many applicants did submit all paperwork, but because of faulty systems, their applications were never submitted. Both founders of COVID Loan Tracker had this happen to them on multiple application platforms despite applying the first day, and thousands of small businesses have shared similar stories with us.
Because of this,

COVID Loan Tracker believes there are closer to 5m stranded applications—mostly from genuine small business owners who lacked accountants and did not have perfect paperwork at-the-ready. Even counting shadow applications, there are also small business owners who simply did not apply because the money ran out so soon—meaning even more applications are forthcoming. Accordingly, we believe demand for the new round of PPP will be extremely high and that funds will be exhausted in 7-10 days.

COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.