Despite a brutal selloff in fixed income, Vanguard sees upside for parts of the asset class given the opportunity to lock in high rates and likelihood that we are in the final stages of the Fed’s hiking cycle. It anticipates a shallow recession in the middle of next year and believes that bonds once again offer diversification and positive returns for investors.

It favors high-quality IG corporate debt due to the strength of corporate balance sheets, as many companies took advantage of ultra-low rates in 2020 and 2021. In recent months, the category has endured significant selling especially as long-duration assets have been hit hardest. 10-year Treasury yields recently exceeded 5% which is the highest level since 2007 amid a spate of positive economic data.

Vanguard is neutral in terms of exposure to lower-grade corporate debt since many of these companies will need to raise capital in a high-rate environment and deal with increased competitive pressures in some sectors. It also sees opportunities in mortgage-backed securities due to its low default risk, diversification, and liquidity. It also favors longer-duration municipal bonds rated below AAA. 

Finsum: Vanguard believes that investors should stay the course when it comes to fixed income despite the recent selloff. It sees more opportunity in particular segments.