In recent weeks, fixed income drifted lower due to concerns about Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech, where he was expected to strike a hawkish tone given the economy continuing to expand at a moderate pace and inflation remaining well above desired levels. 

Powell did lean hawkish in his remarks but not enough to fuel further selling in bonds. Notably, he warned that the FOMC was prepared ‘to raise rates further’. However, he did temper this with constructive comments on the economy’s resilience and inflation’s path lower. Equity markets experienced strength following the remarks as the speech was less hawkish than expected.

The ultimate takeaway is that the Fed is still hawkish, considers inflation too high, and further hikes are on the table if necessary, but it’s less hawkish than a few months ago. Additionally, it sees the resilience of the economy and progress on the inflation front as reason to remain patient in its current stance which delays the idea that rate cuts are going to happen anytime soon. 

Thus, it’s not surprising to see odds for a rate hike later this year edge lower in addition to the odds of a rate cut in the first half of 2023. So far, the ‘higher for longer’ camp continues to be correct which is leading to weakness on the long-end and creating attractive opportunities on the short-end. 

Finsum: Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave his much awaited speech at Jackson Hole. He struck a relatively hawkish tone which was broadly in line with expectations.