In an article for MarketWatch, Vivien Chen covered the decline in Treasury yields following the May FOMC meeting. Although the Fed did hike rates, investors were willing to look ahead as it seems increasingly likely that this was the final hike of the cycle. According to Fed fund futures, the market now expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in Q1 of next year.

Recent economic data which continues to show a weakening labor market, decelerating growth, and softening inflation also confirm this narrative. Additionally, many regional banks continue to struggle given the inverted yield curve which many fear could lead to a credit crunch.

At the FOMC press conference, Chair Jerome Powell continued to assess the inflation battle as being a “long way to go” and that the labor market remains “very tight”. Despite Powell’s hawkish tone, fixed income markets were stronger across the board. Odds for no change in the fed funds rate reached a 95% probability. Additionally, the market’s target for the year-end fed funds rate declined slightly to 4.25% which implies a reduction of 75 basis points. 

Finsum: Treasury yields are modestly lower since the Fed’s rate hike. Odds of a pause at the next meeting have also climbed higher.