In an article for ETFTrends, Mark Hackett discussed whether fixed income can rally given the backdrop of rising inflation and rates. These are potent headwinds for the asset class given that both factors reduce the value of future income and principal.
Of course, this is a major change after a decade of zero percent rates and inflation under 2%. Under these macro conditions, fixed income consistently delivered strong returns for investors with minimal volatility. In addition to these headwinds, there is also an increase in geopolitical tensions, re-shoring of supply chains, a nascent banking crisis, and a slowing economy which could stumble into a recession.
Despite these challenges, investors should still retain a considerable allocation to the asset class. In fact, fixed income has performed well since the middle of 2022 especially as inflation is trending lower, while the market is pricing in rate cuts by the end of the year. Additionally, fixed income is offering yields that are above that of equities.
Due to these developments, fixed income investors can earn above-average returns with minimal risk given the yields in short-term Treasuries and corporate debt.
Finsum: Fixed income ETFs struggled in 2022 due to rising rates and inflation. Despite some headwinds, there are some silver linings for the asset class.