(New York)

For the first time since WWII, Americans are retiring in worse financial condition than the generations that preceded them. Those aged 55 to 70 are preparing to retire with the biggest financial burdens and lowest benefits since Truman was in office. Many have high debt, including paying off children’s tuitions and for aging parents. Their 401(k)s are in poor shape, with a median income of just $8,000 per year for a household of two. According to the study, which was conducted by the Wall Street Journal, more than 40% of American households headed to retirement lack the resources to maintain their current lifestyles. That is about 15m households.

FINSUM: We are having a hard time reconciling this with all the reports of how wealthy the Baby Boomer generation is, yet this comes from quite a reputable source. It must ultimately come down to wealth inequality within that generation.

(Beijing)

All our readers will be aware of the intensifying trade war between the US and China. And while the US seems to have a strong position on trade (with less to lose than its partners), that is not the whole picture. The reality is that the US makes up much of what it loses on trade through massive overseas investment Dollars that flow into US assets. While much of the public’s awareness of this centers on Treasury bonds, one other big area of foreign participation is in MBS, or mortgage bonds. What is much less known is that more recently, foreign buyers, including China, have been much bigger consumers of US mortgage agency bonds (e.g. Fannie and Freddie).

FINSUM: China has the power to simply turn off the spigot on the mortgage market, which could lead to a surge in interest rates and a resulting collapse in prices. That would put US politicians in more hot water than tariffs ever could.

(Washington)

If there is a core element to the debate going on over the SEC rule, it is whether the rule actually does anything new. Some argue that the SEC’s best interest rule is just a rehashing of the well-established FINRA suitability standard. For instance, the CFP has commented that “Our concern is that as introduced, the rule proposal may offer the appearance but not necessarily the reality of increased investor protection”. There are two areas of consternation about the rule, at least as far as consumer groups are concerned—the lack of a definition of “best interest”, and how the rule has differing standards for brokers versus fiduciaries.

FINSUM: While it does seem unconventional, the SEC’s lack of a definition of “best interest” means it may ultimately be more broadly applicable than defining it, and thus creating loopholes.

(Washington)

The SEC has been getting a grilling over its new best interest rule. The industry doesn’t like its proposed disclosure document (CSR) or its restriction on the use of titles, while consumer protection groups say the rule is not stringent enough. Yesterday, SEC chairman Clayton faced questions over the rule from the House Financial Services Committee. Answering questions on whether the rule went far enough and whether the rule should be harmonized between brokers and advisors, Clayton explained that brokers and fiduciaries have different relationships with clients and said “There is no conflict-free relationship … Disclosing [conflicts], mitigating them, making sure everybody understands what the motivations are ... that's what I want to do in this space”.

FINSUM: We think Clayton stood his ground quite well, and we particularly like that final quote, which was grounded in realism.

(New York)

Don’t be fooled by the “prophets of boom”, or the many Wall Street and economic leaders who are saying that the US economy is in great shape and will deliver strong growth for years to come. One well known strategist, David Rosenberg, who called the Great Recession before the Crisis, says that a recession is imminent and will arrive within the next 12 months. Rosenberg believes the January 26th high for the S&P 500 will be the peak of this bull market, and that it will ultimately be the Fed that sparks the recession. “Cycles die, and you know how they die? … Because the Fed puts a bullet in its forehead”.

FINSUM: There are a lot of late cycle indicators flashing in the US economy right now. A recession in the next year does seem plausible, if not overly likely.