FINSUM
There is No Bear Market Coming for Treasuries
(New York)
With all of the bearish stories swirling around lately (us included), it was refreshing to find an alternative view today. Bloomberg has put out an argument that there will be no bear market in store for Treasuries. The story is from the top ranked bond strategist in the world, who points out that a decline in structured credit and related products means that Treasuries are a much higher component of overall fixed income indexes these days. This concentration is likely to keep rising over the next decade, which means indexes and benchmarks will need to buy Treasuries, a critical factor which will keep demand high. Another important point is that the stock market is losing its appeal compared to short-term Treasuries, as the yield of the latter is way ahead of the former and likely to stay that way.
FINSUM: This is excellent analysis from a highly reputably source. Our only addition would be to point out that US and global demography also reinforces the key points, as the aging of the world means there will be a higher demand for income investments over the next decade.
These Stocks are Both Growth and Value
(New York)
Are you a growth investor or value investor? This has long been a bifurcating question, and has taken on increased importance in the last decade, as the former strategy has outperformed the latter by a wide margin. However, there are some occasions where a stock can be both. Using a simple screen, here are some companies priced like value stocks, but with the core expansion characteristics of growth companies. These include: Micron Technology, Energen Corp., Callon Petroleum, Cal-Maine Foods, Valero Energy, TimkenSteel Corp, and TRI Pointe Group.
FINSUM: Many of these might not be familiar names, but the selection is an interesting methodology and we think they are worth a look.
Many Mutual Funds Have Avoided the FAANG Meltdown
(San Francisco)
Here is some good news for mutual fund investors. While many ETFs have been absolutely hammered by the selloff in FANG shares, many mutual funds have largely evaded the losses. According to Goldman, the average large cap mutual fund is underweight three out of four of the FANGs. Mutual fund managers had frequently grown uncomfortable with the FANGs’ soaring valuations, and as such, many had trimmed their exposure.
FINSUM:Some of the benefits of active management (and the downside of passives) are really exemplified in this data. A win for mutual fund investors.
Big EM Debt Selloff Beginning?
(Istanbul)
There is a big mess going on in Turkey. The country’s spat with the US is playing out in financial markets, and it is really starting to hurt. The Lira is dropping fast, and the country’s benchmark bond yield just hit a whopping 20%. The huge losses in the currency and bond market might also lead to a rout and/or chaos in the country’s banks, which are now only weakly capitalized.
FINSUM: It is important not to muddle Turkey with other emerging markets, as many of its problems are specific to itself. Still, there are similarities and a renewed widespread selloff does not seem out of the question.
The Popularity of Hedge Funds is Soaring
(New York)
Everyone knows mutual funds have been on the decline and ETFs on the rise as active management gives way to the rise of passives. However, new data throws a wrench into that narrative—hedge funds are surging in popularity. Hedge funds now account for 28% of all alternative asset demands among investors, just one point shy of private equity, and way up from 12% a year ago. The catch is that hedge funds don’t really look like themselves anymore, with new fund structures, such as separately managed accounts and lower fees, that make them more useful for investors. Co-investing is another big growth area, where major investors invest alongside hedge funds in specific deals.
FINSUM: So hedge funds have surged in popularity, but they are not hedge funds, in the same sense, as before. Further, fees are down, with the average being a management fee of 1.45% and a performance fee of 17%.